GCR returned again after half a year, reviewing its trading logic of betting 7 times on Trump in 3 years. The "profit has been taken" triggered panic selling by whales.
Written by Alex Liu, Foresight News
The last time the legendary trader GCR was active on social media was on April 14 this year. On that day, the market fell sharply, and he posted a message to be bullish on the future trend. The market almost hit the bottom at the same time. This may be just a coincidence, but it also shows his strong personal influence.
Fast forward to the eve of the 2024 US presidential election, and GCR has finally posted again, but this time it has nothing to do with encryption: "The result of the 2000 election was ultimately decided by a difference of 537 votes (48.847% to 48.838%). Although it is unlikely to be so close in 2024, I still encourage everyone to vote tomorrow (whether you vote Republican or Democratic)."
Someone commented in the comments section: 'I'm not joking, my entire fortune is betting on Trump's victory based on GCR's prophecy. If I go bankrupt, I will privately message to request a refund.'
The election results have long become a tradable asset, which side is GCR betting on? What is the prophecy of GCR mentioned by the above netizen?
It turns out that as early as 2021, GCR @GiganticRebirth posted that:
'One of my most confident trades, TRUMP2024.
FTX has severe liquidity issues, so we have been accumulating positions through Alameda OTC and other sources since around 0.10 / 10c (10 cents per share, if ultimately victorious, 1 share will be worth $1).
The biggest risk of this trade is (Trump) having a heart attack, otherwise it is destined to rise to $0.65.'
On July 4, 2022, I posted again stating:
Looking back now, this series of operations feels like I was using cheats, predicting the future three years in advance. (I guess he also watches Foresight News)
Trump smoothly secured the Republican nomination, and DeSantis went to zero. In the presidential election market, Trump's winning odds peaked at 0.7, just above his predicted 0.65, achieving a 7-fold return. How did this happen?
The highest probability of Trump winning on Polymarket is 71.5%.
GCR replied to the comments mentioned in the previous text yesterday, reviewed the transaction, and stated that it has 'taken profit'.
See the full response below:
'I've seen this sentiment many times; as always, I recommend not using leverage and engaging in reckless gambling.
'As traders, our job is to think about possibilities and find the maximum difference between expectations and accurate pricing.
In 2021, I was firmly convinced of two predictions.
(1) DeSantis (will not secure the Republican nomination), because the front runner is a paper tiger, and the likelihood of Trump becoming the true Republican nominee is over 95%.
(2) Predicting that the market will show a right-wing bias (as I observed in Trump's odds in 2020); therefore, the expected pricing of the eventual Republican nominee (whoever gets the nomination) will rise to 65 cents (refer to my pinned tweet, asserting 0.65 since 2021);
Therefore, buying Trump infinitely at under 10% is maximizing value, because I know if my bearish argument on DeSantis is correct, then the odds will rise to over 65% (and purchase other agent bets related to the undervalued odds of Trump).
Both predictions have come true (Trump won the Republican nomination, and the price of his winning share reached 65 cents), I feel satisfied, I have grasped the essence of this trend and taken profits from my positions and agent bets, as most of the delta expectation and reality has materialized;
'Now we are waiting to see if there will be a fair election.'
And to what extent has GCR's influence reached? Just 20 hours ago, a whale withdrew $500,000 from Binance to continue betting on Trump's victory, and one minute after GCR's post 'taken profit', 'waiting to see if there will be a fair election', he started selling off his positions, and within one hour, he cleared out all his positions of over $3 million betting on Trump's victory.
Is GCR implying that as long as the election is fair, Trump will win? Will his bets be as accurate as ever? We look forward to a positive answer, after all, he also said that ETH will eventually rise to $10,000.
