[BTC Weekly Market Analysis] 11/4
Weekly:
MA20 support at 62800.
MA60 support at 54600.
KDJ 78 point dead cross prototype.
MACD zero positive cross, bullish increment.
From the weekly KDJ, the J line has not yet formed a dead cross with the KD line (downtrend) or is the J line reverting with the KD line (uptrend).
Daily:
The lowest points on October 23 and 25 were both at the MA20 support point, but the lowest point on November 3 has broken this MA20 support.
KDJ dead cross position at 19,
MACD dead cross bearish increment.
VOL has seen a continuous three-day bearish increment followed by another two-day bearish increment, with no significant bearish candlestick.
From the combination of KDJ and MACD, there is still room for a downturn, and VOL is currently concentrated on bearish energy release, with no significant bearish candlestick, and the recently increasing bearish candlesticks are not long enough, indicating that the bearish energy has not been fully released.
Combining historical candlestick activity trajectories and cycles, the market is bearish with a target near 64700.
4 Hours:
EMA12 pressure becomes horizontal,
EMA dual track support.
KDJ golden cross currently high around 80.
MACD golden cross prototype, bearish decrement.
VOL bullish trading volume decrement.
From the market trend, on October 24 and 26, the market was supported by the 4-hour EMA dual track, and the most recent significant pullback rose to the highest point of 73660. Last weekend and this Monday, the market has not successfully broken through the EMA dual track support.
KDJ and MACD are bullish, but the decrement in bullish trading volume (VOL) suggests insufficient upward energy, and the oscillating upward market has already moved KDJ from a low position to a high position near 80. Therefore, from the 4-hour perspective, although KDJ and MACD are bullish, the final market trend leans more towards a downturn based on trading volume (VOL), KDJ position, and the oscillating upward trend.
Summary:
Based on the indicator analysis of the weekly, daily, and 4-hour cycles, the market leans towards being bearish, with a target at 64700.
However, it is important to note that the recent market downturn trend has stopped and started to rise, all at the 4-hour support point. Given the current small capital structure, we must avoid shorting at the bottom and try to short at high positions to prevent capital from prematurely reversing and rallying, which could lead to being trapped.
Additionally, there is only one day left until the November 5 election. If Trump wins, will there be a capital rally aimed at inducing buying before a sell-off? This is also a consideration we should take into account.
