How will the US election affect the trend of cryptocurrencies? How should we adjust our investment allocation next?
1. The latest situation of the current election
1. The authoritative odds market in the United States: Predict shows that Harris's winning rate has reversed to the leading position, and Kalshi shows that the winning rates of the two are tied; many people are misled by the odds of Polymarket, a market where non-Americans bet;
2. Polls: Among the current seven swing states, Trump is weak in Michigan and Wisconsin, and Trump's advantage in Pennsylvania and Nevada is almost gone. Trump leads in the other three states;
3. Yesterday, a poll showed that the red state-Iowa was reversed by Harris
2. The election is decisive for the medium-term trend of #BTC
1. If Trump comes to power, various promised favorable policies will have the hope of being fulfilled, and the probability of US institutions betting on BTC will increase greatly;
BTC's fundamentals as digital gold will be improved overall;
2. If Harris comes to power, the SEC is expected to continue the strict encryption policy, and BTC bulls will be hit hard in recent months;
Some BTC ETF investors will stop loss and exit;
Combined with the different expectations of monetary policy and forward inflation after the two people are elected, the election results will affect the trend of the crypto market in the next 3-6 months;
3. What should we do next?
1. Wait for the results of several swing states such as Pennsylvania to come out, the overall situation is basically determined, and follow the trend;
2. If Trump wins as expected:
Full position back to spot position; focus on adding $BTC $Doge $Sol;
U.S. stocks: add $TSLA, $CLSK, $MSTR, $Coin;
3. If Harris wins unexpectedly:
Reduce all cryptocurrencies, and keep spot positions below 30%;
U.S. stocks: add $MSFU, $GOOG, $FSLR, $SOXL;
