What will happen regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins?
Polls show that Trump currently leads Harris in all 7 swing states, with a particularly noticeable advantage in Arizona and Nevada. Data indicates that competition remains fierce in key "Rust Belt" states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
If Trump wins, the Republican Party may achieve a landslide victory and potentially introduce more expansionary fiscal policies, which could trigger trade wars, increase the deficit, and lead to rising interest rates.
If Vice President Harris wins, the economy may continue on a path of soft landing. Therefore, the Federal Reserve may maintain its expected path of accommodative policies.
Both Trump and Harris have a support rate of 49%, with Harris’s support declining by 2% compared to the last poll.
Overall, the 2024 U.S. presidential election between Trump and Harris is a pivotal moment that has significant implications for global markets, cryptocurrency regulations, and the U.S. economy. Although expert opinions and public polls paint a mixed yet thought-provoking picture, the election outcome will undoubtedly influence economic policies and market dynamics in the coming weeks.
