Odaily Planet Daily News: The Complex Decision Analysis Center of Fudan University has released a prediction for the 2024 U.S. presidential election based on computer simulation modeling, showing that Trump is highly likely to reclaim the presidency (with a probability exceeding 60%). The research team stated that the prediction is primarily based on agent-based modeling (ABM) simulation technology. Our prediction is divided into three steps: (1) Through ABM-based simulation predictions, we obtained the vote share distribution and electoral college allocations for 8 key states in the U.S. (limited by budget constraints, we selected 8 key states); (2) Through 1 million rounds of Monte Carlo simulation, we obtained tracking poll predictions and electoral college allocations for the remaining 42 states and Washington D.C.; (3) The two results are summarized to arrive at the overall prediction for the 2024 U.S. election. Our ABM prediction covers eight key states (these eight states are those where the gap between the Democratic and Republican parties was less than 5% in the 2020 election). The specific predictions for the 8 key states (based on ABM simulation predictions) are as follows: Trump will win: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin. Harris will win: Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina.