The US presidential election is on November 5, and voting will end in the early hours of November 6 in the Eastern Eight District. If Harris is elected, results may come out immediately; if Trump is elected, results may take several days, which is related to the voting methods of the two parties' voters.
This contest is not only about who will be in the White House but could also trigger a chain reaction in global financial markets. The Democratic and Republican parties have torn apart their facade and are no longer playing fair. First, it was revealed that a significant number of false voter registrations appeared in the crucial state of Pennsylvania. Then, Oregon and Washington states were reported to have ballot boxes set on fire. Biden came out at this time and made matters worse, first saying that those who voted for Trump are trash, and then saying that those who voted for Trump should be spanked, which undoubtedly further stimulates swing voters to turn to Trump. Both camps have started extreme tugging.
Moreover, various big shots have also entered the fray and taken sides. First, looking at Harris's camp, not only does she have support from former President Obama, superstar Taylor Swift, but even the usually low-profile Bill Gates has invested $50 million to help the campaign, along with other supporters from her camp including George Soros, the president of Blackstone, Netflix co-founders, etc. On the other hand, Trump's camp has gathered many Silicon Valley elites, with Musk being the most vocal, pouring money and effort without counting costs. Additionally, there are casino tycoons, real estate magnates, founders of energy companies, and former chairman of Marvel, making this four-year political event not only a gathering of American celebrities and politicians but also attracting global attention.
Next, I will analyze this US election from the following three aspects.
1. Who has a better chance, Harris or Trump?
2. How will the election results affect the cryptocurrency market?
3. What are the key election-themed coins worth investing in? What are the hype time nodes?
1. Why are polls, predictive models, and prediction markets different? Who has a better chance, Harris or Trump?
I compared polls, predictive models, and prediction market data and found that these three types of data differ greatly.
According to the poll conducted by The New York Times, Harris and Trump are nearly tied at 49% to 48%.
In the prediction model published by The Economist at the end of October, Trump's probability of winning against Harris is 54% to 45%, with Trump slightly ahead. However, according to the predictive data from FiveThirtyEight, Harris's winning probability is 61%, while Trump's is 31%.
In the prediction market Polymarket, the results lean more toward Trump. As of November 2, 58.4% bet on Trump winning, while 41.8% bet on Harris winning.
Why is there such a large discrepancy among these three types of data? How should we assess the objectivity of the data?
Let me analyze simply:
Polls mainly conduct sampling surveys, asking voters through phone and online about whom they support, and then restoring the final data through weighting. Although they can collect data from various social groups, there are many interference factors, easily causing sample bias. There are always some groups that do not want to participate in surveys or express false opinions to conform. For example, in the 2016 US election, most polls showed Hillary Clinton leading in support, predicting her victory. However, the prediction market data reflected that market participants had higher confidence in Trump's victory. The final result was that Hillary unexpectedly lost.
In the prediction market, taking Polymarket as an example, participants need to bet real money to express their opinions; the underlying principle is that people do not joke with their own money, so their predictions tend to be more genuine and cautious, and the data also fluctuates in real-time with news direction. However, I also saw an interesting piece of data: Reuters reported that there were four accounts on Polymarket placing large bets on Trump winning, and these accounts are not owned by Americans. This adds a touch of uncertainty to the prediction market. The original logic is that people bet to win, so the prediction data tends to reflect the real outcomes. But now with the involvement of new forces, their objective is to manipulate data and change market direction at any cost.
The forecasting model, also known as the Forecasting model, encompasses many different types. Simply put, it combines polling data and economic indicators, predicting through various analyses and weighted averages. For example, the GDP for the third quarter is a variable for predicting the November presidential election; if the third quarter GDP grows, it indicates a good economic situation, and the incumbent party will thus have an advantage. However, each predictive model has its limitations, and positive economic data does not mean voters will feel it, so this data can only serve as a reference.
Additionally, there is a key data point: according to Paradigm's latest poll, 5% of voters consider cryptocurrency policy as their primary voting consideration, 20% have already invested in or used cryptocurrencies, and another 15% plan to invest in the next year, which adds new variables to the election.
Personally, I express my subjective opinion that Trump is likely to be elected.
Essentially, the US president follows history, choosing someone who is not too opposed by everyone, or in other words, taking the lesser of two evils; Harris is the less favorable side among voters. Over the past four years, inflation in the US has skyrocketed, and the public is dissatisfied, with the crypto space suffering greatly. As Vice President, she cannot separate from the Biden administration, but if she does, it means drawing a line from the original team; Harris, who has yet to gather a team in a time of crisis, is far less appealing than the orange-skinned old man.
Thus, regardless of intra-party conditions or economic factors, which are the most crucial factors in the election, Harris has no advantage.
Also, when the situation becomes very tense, institutional and cultural factors can influence the final outcome.
Trump's persona is that if you don't vote for me, there's something wrong with the system, the Democrats are rigging it, and like Yu Qian, smoking, drinking, perming hair, anyway, it won’t collapse no matter what he does.
As a representative of the establishment, Harris cannot turn the table, so if she leads, Trump will turn the table on her, and if she falls behind, she cannot turn the table either, branding herself as a civilized person. Fighting with barbarians means losing at the starting line.
Unless there is a significant lead for Harris, there would be no suspense, and clearly, such a situation has not occurred.
Based on the above analysis, I believe that combining polling and Polymarket data is more objective. Currently, the polling data shows both are nearly tied, but on Polymarket, Trump has a slight edge, so Trump is currently the more favorable side. Of course, the final results still depend on the swing state votes. The recent plunge in BTC that was previously worried about Trump's defeat and led to profit-taking is also related to profit-taking, so whether it will return as results are announced is the question we will discuss next.
The following questions are more critical, be sure to listen till the end, there is a wealth secret!
2. How will the election results affect the cryptocurrency market?
In the long run, the election results cannot stop the rise of Bitcoin. The financial markets are mainly influenced by economic fundamentals, and it doesn't matter who sits behind the Oval Office desk.
In the short term, the election results will cause severe market volatility. This is mainly because the economic policy orientations of the Democratic and Republican parties differ. The Republican Party leans towards the 'small government' concept, while the Democratic Party advocates the 'big government' model.
The small government concept, simply put, means that the government should be as small and minimally intervening as possible, allowing individuals in the market more freedom. Therefore, it will stimulate the economy in the short term, encourage investment and consumption, and also drive up the financial market.
In contrast, a big government advocates that the government should actively provide support services, call for tax increases, and strengthen regulation to balance income distribution, using funds for social security and public services.
It seems that the impact of the election results is evident.
If Harris wins, as the current Vice President, she is likely to continue the financial regulatory policies of the Biden administration. In that case, current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler will likely continue in office, as he has a significant record during his tenure, taking a hard line against the crypto market; well-known projects in the crypto space have faced lawsuits from the SEC. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has always held a reserved attitude toward cryptocurrencies. She has expressed multiple times that regulation of cryptocurrencies is very important and should be approached cautiously. Even if these two do not remain, the crypto market will face stricter regulation.
In contrast, Trump has publicly stated that if elected, he would make the U.S. the world's cryptocurrency capital and embrace cryptocurrencies, artificial intelligence, and other 'future industries.' His advisory team also includes many friendly figures toward cryptocurrencies. For example, Hester Peirce, a current SEC commissioner, known as the 'Mother of Crypto,' has publicly stated that the SEC has indeed failed in its duties, and the regulatory authority boundaries are unclear, emphasizing that cryptocurrencies are not securities, so why always use the Howey test.
Michael Piwowar, a former SEC commissioner, stated that the SEC's cryptocurrency policy is a 'disaster.' It seems that once Trump is elected, he may appoint a more open-minded SEC chairman toward the crypto market. The previously mentioned Solana ETF may thus accelerate its approval process. Regarding the selection of the Secretary of the Treasury, Steve Mnuchin, who served as Secretary of the Treasury during Trump's administration, has a conservative stance on cryptocurrency, focusing on financial stability and investor protection. Larry Kudlow, a former White House economic advisor, believes that the development of cryptocurrency can bring new opportunities to the US economy, promoting entrepreneurship and technological advancement.
In addition, crypto companies are also influencing policies and legislation through continuous donations. This election cycle, political contributions from the crypto industry have reached $94 million, a record high. This includes contributions from Coinbase, Kraken, Bitfinex, and others.
And if Trump is elected, it will also strengthen the stimulus of the Eastern Eight District's economic policies, which is also good for A-shares.
Overall, if we do not consider the pressure Harris may impose on cryptocurrencies, even if regulatory policies from the previous term continue, the Bitcoin bull market is already unstoppable; however, if Trump is elected, the bull market will be more intense. Currently, whether it is the four-year bull-bear cycle, or large-scale investments full of confidence from institutions, or the increasing number of cryptocurrency holders, all signal the arrival of this trend.
3. What are the election-themed coins worth investing in?
Currently, there are a large number of Trump and Harris-themed coins on the market, with both old and new coins available, and varying market caps. The outcome of the US election will determine whether these tokens go to zero or take off. What can we buy? At what timing should we act? Here are the coins I have organized.
$DOGE
Musk himself is the 'Dogecoin Father,' and with his collaboration with Trump, the momentum is even stronger. On August 20, Musk tweeted that he intended to establish a 'Department of Government Efficiency,' abbreviated as D.O.G.E. Trump responded that if elected, he would establish this department. DOGE is once again associated with the presidential election.
CA:0xba2ae424d960c26247dd6c32edc70b295c744c43
Current market cap: $23.5B
Number of wallet addresses: 7.016 million
$People
$People is issued by ConstitutionDAO, originally created to purchase the Constitution, later evolving into a meme coin symbolizing the people, aligning with the vision of decentralization.
CA:0x7a58c0be72be218b41c608b7fe7c5bb630736c71
Current market cap: $349M
Number of wallet addresses: 180,000
$MAGA (Ethereum chain)
MAGA comes from Trump's slogan 'Make America Great Again,' so the price trend of the coin is closely related to Trump's approval ratings, performing best among a series of Trump-themed coins.
CA:0xd29da236dd4aac627346e1bba06a619e8c22d7c5
Current market cap: $476M
Number of wallet addresses: 24,300
$TRUMP (Ethereum chain)
One of the earliest Trump-themed coins, it reached its historical peak of over $800 million in June this year.
CA: 0x576e2BeD8F7b46D34016198911Cdf9886f78bea7
Current market cap: $70.7M
Number of wallet addresses: 40,000
$TRUMP (Solana chain)
Created five months ago, the community is operational. It has experienced two major peaks and is currently in a pullback phase, looking for a bottom.
CA:4h8LjZWUfUQVgbEZ29UzTuGXNW6rwrJis78ZU66ekkPV
Market cap: $7M
Number of wallet addresses: 10,000
$TRUMP 47 (Solana chain)
The Trump-themed coin created just in October hopes that Trump will be elected as the 47th President of the United States. At the project's launch, its market cap once exceeded $16 million.
CA:HdHqKPz3n52e6FCJREKY3MS56TagyvRxsxVYG7E4rF99
Market cap: $8.3M
Number of wallet addresses: 14,700
$FIGHT (Ethereum chain)
Created three months ago when Trump was shot through the ear at a rally, fueling the coin's popularity.
CA:0x8802269D1283cdB2a5a329649E5cB4CdcEE91ab6
Market cap: $7.4M
Number of wallet addresses: 8,419
$KAMA (Solana chain)
The name of the KAMA token comes from a parody cartoon version of the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris (changed to KAMA Horris).
CA:HnKkzR1YtFbUUxM6g3iVRS2RY68KHhGV7bNdfF1GCsJB
Market cap: $10.3M
Number of wallet addresses: 10,000
Additionally, you can also keep an eye on popular events during the election in real-time; related words may become the next soaring meme coins, such as the previous: EAR, FREE, BURGER, etc. In the future, words like Vote, Rights, Great, etc., might emerge.
Political meme coin hype nodes
Event-based meme coin hype needs to catch key time points, currently divided into three phases with four time points.
1. Electors and voting day (11/5 & 12/16)
After the nationwide vote on November 5, the US president will likely have a result.
December 16 is when the electoral results will be based on the popular vote, concluding the results of the electors. Of course, it is highly likely we won't have to wait until that day.
2. The election results will be announced (2025/1/6)
The US Congress joint session will officially announce the elected candidate on January 6, 2025, symbolizing the final confirmation of the election process. However, since this is just a procedural formality, the hype for MEME at that time will be limited.
3. Presidential inauguration (2025/1/20)
The new president will be sworn in on January 20, officially starting their term.
That's all for this issue, the wealth landscape for the next four years is about to emerge, millions of hearts are excited, welcome to join my community and embrace this critical moment together. Get more updates on wealth in the crypto space.
