The blockchain gaming space has been relatively calm recently, with basically no projects for earning money. Most are participating in early testing of game projects, earning expected airdrops, earning NFT white lists, etc. There is still some difference from the direct earning mode we previously encountered, and by chance, the VGG community has recently participated in several such expected gameplay projects. We have summarized our participation methodologies.
One, obtaining quality information sources and project exploration.
As the heat of the blockchain gaming space gradually rises, more and more games appear in our vision. If we were to look at them one by one, most of your time would likely be wasted on junk projects, and one person does not have that much time and energy. Faced with a large number of projects, how to focus limited time on potentially valuable projects makes the selection of information sources particularly important. Here are our main information sources:
1. Twitter: We follow some KOLs in the blockchain gaming space on Twitter, and see which projects they are paying attention to. Many early-stage projects will seek KOLs as promotional ambassadors, making Twitter a very important channel for information selection. Moreover, when these KOLs publish projects, they have already done a preliminary screening for us, and provide basic information about the projects. This also helps reduce our workload in the subsequent project research phase. For instance, the L3E7 project we participated in previously was found through Twitter.
2. Blockchain gaming communities: We join groups from other communities, various blockchain gaming chat groups, and observe which games they are discussing, the enthusiasm of their discussions on specific games, whether the sentiment is FOMO or FUD. From these conversations, we can also identify which are quality projects.
3. Off-market groups: This is also a relatively uncommon channel we discovered. By observing what everyone is trading off-market, we can also understand which projects people are participating in recently, and we can reflect values and popularity based on the highs and lows of off-market prices. Recently, in 'Rune Heroes', VGG participated after seeing everyone trading white lists and activation codes in off-market groups.
Two, project analysis: From heat to background, then to revenue assessment.
After finding the project in the first step, we need to conduct a step-by-step analysis of the project.
1. Project heat: The project needs to have heat to stimulate everyone's enthusiasm. Projects without heat are either due to insufficient publicity efforts by the project team or lack of a strong background. Regardless of the reason, projects without heat have not gained recognition at this stage, and we do not need to spend time on them. So how to judge whether a project has heat? We still need to look at Twitter to see which KOLs are promoting the project and whether there are many KOLs promoting it. Is the content they promote monotonous or do they have their own opinions? Then we can check the activity level of the official Discord group and whether anyone is paying attention in various WeChat groups.
2. Game background and team strength: Further analyze the project background based on its heat, whether financing is disclosed, the amount of financing, whether the production team has similar experiences or success cases. If the team has developed traditional web2 games, we should also look at how their web2 games performed, including quality, number of players, game revenue, user reviews, etc. If the project has issued assets, there must be earlier participants, and we can inquire for further information, combining the performance of the assets to see how their increase and decrease have been at key time points, whether the number of holders is increasing or decreasing. Through these data, we can make a preliminary judgment about the project.
For example, in the L3E7 project we participated in before, team members had previously developed 'Monster Catching Together', which performed quite well. The first NFT of L3E7 was free to mint, and the highest price reached 10 ETH, and it has remained stable around 3 ETH. The asset's performance is also very strong.
3. Revenue assessment and participation decision-making:
Finally, estimate the returns for this participation.
If it is about earning white lists, estimate the value of NFTs by finding comparable projects. Look for several projects that have already issued NFTs, examine their financing and valuations, as well as the market value of the first NFT to derive a ratio. Use this ratio to estimate the current NFT market value, and then divide the NFT market value by the total quantity to find the individual NFT value. Finally, consider how much investment is needed to obtain a white list, typically an activation code plus manpower; if there is a price difference, it indicates a project worth participating in.
If it is about earning tokens, we need to look for game projects that are issuing tokens, examine the relationship between financing and market value, deduce the current project's token market value through this ratio, and then calculate the individual account's earnings by multiplying the token market value by the percentage of airdropped tokens divided by the number of participants. Finally, we compare this with human resource investment to determine whether it is worth participating.
Three, strategy planning and participation cost control.
Once we are determined to participate in a project, we need to start planning the gaming strategy. First is the participation cost; if the current test of a project is to earn a white list, and you find that the price of the white list is higher than the cost required to earn it through playing the game, then clearly, participating in the game to earn the white list is more cost-effective. Conversely, just buy the white list directly to avoid the steps and uncertainties of playing the game. For example, the white list for 'Rune Heroes' was once speculated to 150 USD, while the activation code only costs 30 USD. Through calculation, we found that the total cost required to earn the white list with the activation code is around 100 USD, which is significantly cheaper compared to 150 USD. Thus, we chose to obtain the activation code to earn the white list.
If the project is about earning token airdrops, we need to find the highest cost-effectiveness gaming approach, appropriately omit some enhancement processes. In simple terms, it means spending less time to gain more airdrop shares. For example, in L3E7, if an account is enhanced while earning battle power, it takes more time, but the output of stardust does not proportionately match the time spent. Hence, our choice is that most accounts do not enhance and only focus on earning stardust.
Four, the combination of short-term and long-term strategies: The transition from expectations to earning.
For projects that have already participated in the early stage, everyone should have some early assets in hand. At this point, there is often a dilemma: should we exit? Will exiting now mean missing out on high returns later? Therefore, the combination of short-term and long-term strategies becomes very important. We can judge whether it is worthwhile to transition from short-term to long-term earning based on the following points.
1. Attitude and execution of the project team: Observe whether the project team is continuously advancing the project and whether they regularly update development progress. If the team's execution and project advancement rhythm are positive, it can increase confidence in long-term holding.
2. Improvement of game playability: As testing progresses, changes in game playability and user experience are also points of observation. Projects that have innovative gameplay or continuously improve their experience are often more likely to accumulate a player base and lay a foundation for long-term development.
3. The chain of asset empowerment: Pay attention to whether the project team has plans for multiple empowerment of NFTs and other assets. The depth and frequency of empowerment not only directly affect asset value but also enhance player and investor stickiness. Frequent and valuable empowerment means the assets will have greater long-term potential.
4. Choosing the timing for 'earning': Observe the timing for earning and the demand for NFTs. When the demand for NFTs or game assets increases and the empowerment effect becomes apparent, it is an opportunity to firmly hold onto our base assets. For projects with a longer earning cycle, we can conduct wave operations in conjunction with the project team’s update rhythm. Sell when the heat is high, and repurchase when the market is calmer and the project's fundamentals remain stable to optimize overall returns.
Summary:
Compared to the traditional blockchain gaming 'earning' methods, the currently popular 'expected gameplay' in blockchain gaming mainly focuses on obtaining potential future returns through early participation in project testing, receiving airdrops, and white lists. When participating in such projects, in addition to following the methodology I mentioned earlier, one should also develop a set of personal methodologies that suit oneself. While executing strictly, one also needs a higher sensitivity to information and flexible risk management to cope with project uncertainties and market changes. Through reasonable resource allocation and time investment, one can seize opportunities in blockchain gaming projects and lay a foundation for future development.