1. Current latest situation of the election

Authoritative odds market in the US:

Predict shows Harris's winning probability has reversed to lead

Kalshi shows both have equal winning probabilities

Don’t be misled by Polymarket, that's a market for non-Americans to bet

Poll situation:

Among the 7 swing states, Trump has weakened in Michigan and Wisconsin

The advantages in Pennsylvania and Nevada are also about to disappear

In the other three states, Trump is still leading

Yesterday, a poll in Iowa (a red state) showed a reversal by Harris, but overall Trump is still leading

Overall, the election situation is very tense, and the market is hesitant to bet recklessly. The election is on November 5, but it will take 3-7 days to release the results, and the market will certainly be unsettled during this time.

2. The election is crucial for the mid-term trend of BTC

If Trump comes to power:

Various favorable policies may come to fruition

American institutions are more likely to buy BTC

The fundamentals of BTC as digital gold will be better

If Harris comes to power:

The SEC is likely to continue its strict enforcement

Recent months' BTC bulls are in for a rough time

Investors in BTC ETF may stop-loss and flee

Moreover, the monetary policies and inflation expectations of the two are different, and the election results will affect the market in the next 3-6 months.

3. What will happen to BTC if Trump unexpectedly loses?

For the past two weeks, the market has been betting on Trump winning, but now the probability has decreased, those betting on this may need to run. The on-chain BTC contract positions are at a high, and the funding rate is not low. Institutions may continue to press down when they return to work on Monday.

If Trump really loses:

BTC may drop below 60,000 within a week

Initiate a downward wave 5

No good days ahead for the next quarter

BTC can only rely on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates

It may break 74,000 by mid-2025, but breaking 100,000 is somewhat difficult

4. How to operate next?

First, wait for the results of a few swing states, then act once the overall situation is set

If Trump wins:

Fully switch to spot

Focus on BTC, DOGE, SOL

If Harris wins:

Reduce positions in all coins, keeping spot below 30%

Wishing Trump and Elon’s team victory!