QCP released a weekend summary stating that Thursday's core PCE data was slightly higher than expected (actual YoY growth of 2.7%, expected 2.6%). In contrast, Friday's non-farm payroll data (NFP) was unexpectedly lower than expected (actual 12,000, expected 110,000), causing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to rebound and return to the 104 level.
Bitcoin hit a historical high on Tuesday night, trading as high as 73.6k, driven by expectations for the election week. Despite Bitcoin's outstanding performance this week, Ethereum has been relatively flat and has failed to break through the 2.7k mark. Against the backdrop of strong ETF fund inflows, Bitcoin's net inflows this week exceeded $2.1 billion.
Despite Bitcoin falling below $69,000 on Friday, we still see strong interest in the market, with total open positions for BTC futures and BTC options remaining at high levels of $40.65 billion and $25.3 billion, respectively. In the upcoming election week, the short-term implied volatility of BTC and ETH is still higher than the 72 volatility, and as traders increase their downside protection, the skewness of put options is constantly rising.
Although Trump is considered a popular candidate for the next US president, his chances of winning on Polymarket have fallen from a high of 66% to 57%, with Harris' support at 43%. Regardless of the outcome, we believe that the election will see a "good news" market, similar to what happened after the Nashville Bitcoin Conference.
