According to BlockBeats, on November 2, QCP released a weekend summary stating that Thursday's core PCE data came in slightly above expectations (actual year-on-year growth of 2.7%, expected 2.6%). In contrast, Friday's non-farm payroll data (NFP) unexpectedly fell short of expectations (actual 12,000, expected 110,000), causing the dollar index (DXY) to rebound and return to the 104 level.
Bitcoin reached an all-time high on Tuesday night, trading up to $73.6k, driven by market expectations for the election week. While Bitcoin performed exceptionally well this week, Ethereum remained relatively flat, failing to break through the $2.7k mark. Against a backdrop of strong ETF inflows, Bitcoin saw a net inflow of over $2.1 billion this week.
Despite Bitcoin falling below $69,000 on Friday, market interest remains strong, with total Bitcoin futures and options open interest holding at $40.65 billion and $25.3 billion, respectively. In the upcoming election week, short-term implied volatility is still above 72 volatility units, with a slight increase in bearish sentiment for Bitcoin and Ethereum, as traders are adding downside protection positions.
Although Trump is considered a leading candidate for the next U.S. president, his odds on Polymarket have dropped from a high of 66% to 57%, while Harris's support stands at 43%. Regardless of the outcome, we believe the election will replicate the 'good news is already priced in' scenario, similar to the situation after the Nashville Bitcoin conference.
