Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | jk
November 5 is the presidential election day for the US, and it will be a day that profoundly affects the world situation for the next four years. In this upcoming US election, voters' choices will impact US policy direction, China's policy response, and the trends of cryptocurrencies and the stock market.
This article will detail the election mechanism, timeline, odds, and public perceptions of them. Through this analysis, whether you are a spectator enthusiastic about the election or an investor interested in the cryptocurrency market, you will gain a deeper understanding of the current political situation and its potential impact on the future economy.
Background knowledge: Why did Trump receive fewer votes in 2016 but still win the US presidency?
The US presidential election is held every four years. First, each state conducts primaries or caucuses, where voters vote for their preferred candidates. Based on the primary results, major political parties convene national conventions to officially nominate their candidates. The leading candidates currently are Donald Trump for the Republican Party and Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party.
The official presidential election takes place on the first Tuesday in November (this year it will be November 5, local US time). In this election, voters actually vote for electors (similar to representatives of the people), rather than directly voting for one of the two candidates. Each state allocates electors based on its population, with a total of 538 electors across the country. Most states adopt a 'winner-takes-all' system, meaning that the candidate who receives the most votes in a state will receive all of that state's electoral votes.
Here is the first point to note about the US presidential election: In the US presidential election, voters vote for electors, and these electors usually represent a specific party. The political stance of the electors and whether they support Trump or Harris is generally determined before the election, so the results of the voters' votes often directly reflect which candidate will gain the support of the majority of electors, or even all the electoral votes from that state, which is the concept we traditionally refer to as 'red states' and 'blue states'.
For example, if a Democratic elector A from California receives the most popular votes in that state, then all of California's electoral votes (a total of 55 electoral votes) will belong to the Democratic candidate Harris, regardless of the political stance of other electors.
Therefore, by statistically analyzing the allocation of electoral votes in November, it is usually possible to predict with relative accuracy who will ultimately become president, and we will see this result next week.
To be elected president, a candidate needs to obtain at least 270 electoral votes. The election results are usually officially confirmed at the electoral college meeting in December, where electors vote for the new president. The second point to note is that although electors generally vote according to the will of the voters (that is, the political positions they campaigned for), in some cases, individual electors may choose to 'betray' their candidate and vote for others. This situation, while relatively rare, does exist, so theoretically, the final voting results of the electoral college may not completely correspond to the voting results of the voters.
In the 2016 US presidential election, Hillary Clinton received more popular votes, approximately 65 million votes, accounting for 48.2% of the total votes. Donald Trump received about 63 million votes, accounting for 46.1% of the total votes. Although Hillary led in popular votes, Trump won more electoral votes, ultimately being elected president with a result of 304 votes to 227.
The final results of this year's electoral vote will likely be announced around midnight on November 5, US local time, which corresponds to the afternoon of November 6, Beijing time.
Trump vs. Harris: What are the odds?
Currently, in most polls predicted by authoritative agencies, whether from media leaning towards the Democrats, leaning towards the Republicans, or neutral agencies, Harris still holds an advantage, but the advantage is only one or two percentage points. According to statistics from the neutral media Project 538, the average value of the current major poll results shows that as of November 1, Harris's winning probability is 48.0%, while Trump's is 46.8%. Other data statistics websites show similar results, such as the New York Times' result of Harris at 49% compared to Trump's 48%; and the result from 270towin shows Harris at 48.4% against Trump's 47.2%.
Harris leads the polls by an average of 1.3%. Source: Project 538
Previously, the results reported by Fox News (a media outlet leaning towards the Republicans) and CNN (a media outlet leaning towards the Democrats) also corroborated this conclusion.
This result is somewhat at odds with the current results from the crypto prediction platform Polymarket; according to a previous article published by Odaily Planet Daily (As the US election approaches, is Polymarket's data more credible?), it can be seen that Trump's winning probability has remained stable at around 60%, while Harris was under 40%. As of the publication of this article, the total amount in this prediction market has reached $2.38 billion, with a slight decline in Trump's winning probability and a corresponding increase in Harris's winning probability. It can be observed that the Polymarket market has been approaching the polling results in the past week, although Trump still firmly occupies the main position.
Presidential election predictions on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket
Breaking news: Little Zha has flipped, Harris's Twitter is being bombarded.
As the election situation has developed so far, many interesting things have happened. Not to mention Elon Musk and other business tycoons publicly supporting Trump, the 'apology letter' that Meta CEO Zuckerberg wrote to the Republicans has exploded online.
According to Sina Finance, on August 26, Zuckerberg stated in a letter to Jim Jordan, Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, a Republican, that he would remain politically 'neutral' during this election cycle and stop donating to local government elections to avoid being seen as politically biased. Previously, he was generally seen as a staunch supporter of the Democratic Party, and this letter may be his 'letter of allegiance' to the Republicans.
He also publicly criticized Biden administration officials for 'constantly' pressuring Facebook in 2021 to review pandemic-related posts. Zuckerberg said he regretted the company's yielding to these demands. Some people even believe that it was because he discovered trends at this public opinion center, Facebook, that he turned to the Republican Party.
The House Judiciary Committee's X account publicly stated when releasing this letter: 'Mark Zuckerberg acknowledged three things in this letter - first, the Biden-Harris administration 'pressured' Facebook to censor Americans; second, Facebook censored Americans; third, Facebook suppressed information regarding Hunter Biden's laptop.' According to Bloomberg, the authenticity of this letter has been confirmed by Meta.
Secondly, on the current X platform, debates are rampant, and almost all comments under candidate Harris's Twitter are critical posts. Under her latest post, 'I will be the president for all Americans', the comments are overwhelmingly negative: 'You will not be any American's president', 'You will not even become the vice president for all Americans', people say.
Harris's Twitter comments section, source: X
Almost all of the comments under Harris's Twitter are in this style, somewhat similar to Trump's in 2016. Some netizens believe the only reason to vote for Harris is 'disliking Trump.'
Meme trend: Does Harris's Meme have a chance?
Currently, the largest Meme coin related to Trump, MAGA, has maintained a trend between $3 and $4, with only minor fluctuations, seemingly waiting for the final election results to be announced. This sideways trend has lasted for about two weeks.
MAGA trend, source: Coingecko
In contrast, Harris's recent Meme coin concept has started to rise, with KAMA's short-term increase reaching about 20%, rising from around $0.006 to about $0.0099 now, and its market capitalization has also increased to $9.966 million. Although compared to Trump, it is still a small gain, it may reflect an increase in this market. After all, Trump's concept is relatively mature, with various NFT concepts attracting hot money, while Harris's related concept has relatively larger room for growth.
KAMA trend, source: Coingecko
Here, Odaily Planet Daily reminds readers that Meme fluctuations are large, and this presidential election will be the largest fluctuation of concepts in the short term. Therefore, there is a high possibility of a 'Sell the news' event, meaning that the victory of a certain candidate may not lead to the expected surge in Meme tokens, but rather to the collective selling off by previous whale addresses. Please pay attention to the risks.
However, regarding the ever-changing international situation, unless a larger disruptive event occurs in the future, including but not limited to: electors betraying their party, leading to changes in the final December election results from the previously 'determined' results in November; a candidate and their party being discovered to have committed election fraud, rendering the results invalid; or a repeat of the previous 'Capitol Hill riot' incident, or even a candidate following in Kennedy's footsteps, the election result will be the final expected release of Meme coins in the short term.
Attached is the timeline of the US presidential election so far.
February 2: A judge in Washington, D.C. indefinitely postponed the trial for Trump's election interference.
March 4: The US Supreme Court unanimously ruled in Trump v. Anderson that the proposal by Colorado, Illinois, and Maine to remove Trump from the ballot based on the Fourteenth Amendment is unconstitutional.
May 30: Trump was found guilty on all 34 counts in a trial in New York, becoming the first convicted US president.
July 1: The US Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3 in favor of Trump in a case, ideologically divided, ruling that Trump enjoys absolute immunity for actions within the core constitutional powers, at least enjoying presumptive immunity for official actions within the external boundaries of his official duties, while not enjoying immunity for unofficial actions. Trump's conviction sentencing date in New York has been postponed from July to September 2024, and the trial dates for other cases may also be postponed to review the applicability of the Supreme Court ruling.
Since July 1, more than 20 representatives have called for Biden to withdraw from the race.
July 13: Trump was shot at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, suffering an ear injury. A bystander and the shooter were killed, and two others were injured.
July 15: The 2024 Republican National Convention is held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Trump announces US Senator JD Vance as his vice presidential candidate, who is subsequently confirmed as the Republican presidential candidate.
July 17: Biden stated that he would consider withdrawing if officially diagnosed with a medical condition. Subsequently, Biden tested positive for COVID-19.
July 21: Biden announced his withdrawal from the race and initiated the 'emergency transition process' for the Democratic Party nomination. Vice President Kamala Harris announced her candidacy for president.
August 6: Kamala Harris announces Governor Tim Walz as her vice presidential candidate.
September 15: A shooting incident occurred while Trump was golfing at his Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. Trump was unharmed and evacuated by Secret Service personnel.
October 29: Biden responded via video call to a comedian during Trump's rally at Madison Square Garden, calling Trump's supporters 'garbage', which led to a rebuttal from Harris. This was seen by many as potentially damaging efforts by the Democrats to attract undecided voters, while also making a large number of Trump-supporting Americans feel marginalized.
November 5 (the first Tuesday in November): Election Day.