Polly Market Update: Polls Show Trump Leading Harris in Swing States as 2024 Approaches
Politico data shows Trump has a 62.9% chance of winning the election, while Harris is behind at 37.0%.
In key swing states, Trump holds narrow leads in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, showing strong support at the state level.
National polls show Harris with a slight lead in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump has a broader lead nationwide.
As the presidential election approaches, a recent update to Bull Market's 2024 US presidential election forecasts between candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris indicates a tight race.
As of November 5, 2024, the market size is $2.87 billion. Donald Trump holds the leading position in the market with a 62.9% share, while Kamala Harris lags behind with a 37.0% share.
Source: Polymarkets
Over the past record, the chart created by Multimarkets shows fluctuations throughout the year, starting with Trump consistently above Harris in the early months. From March to early June, Trump’s line remained relatively stable, hovering just below 60%. Over the same period, Harris maintained a low market share, close to zero, indicating limited confidence in her chances.
By mid-June, Trump’s lead had strengthened further, reaching a notable peak of over 60%. In July, Harris saw a sharp rise, nearly passing Trump at one point, and reaching her highest point in the race.
But by August, Trump had regained his lead, while Harris’s percentage had slipped. Trump’s market dominance fluctuated, but remained firmly above 60% toward the bottom of the chart.
Throughout September and October, Trump’s position remained strong, hovering above the 60% mark. During this period, Harris’ market share declined further, settling at around 35%. The last quarter of the chart shows little change in positions, with Trump maintaining a clear lead.
While all this is happening, Trump is still in first place in key swing states. According to a New York Times update on leading polls among 2024 contenders, Trump has shown a broad lead over Kamala Harris.
Source: New York Times
As of November 1, Harris has a slight lead in Wisconsin and Michigan, each by less than 1%, with both candidates at 49% in those states.
Trump has a narrow lead in Pennsylvania (less than 1%), North Carolina (1%), Georgia (2%), and Arizona (3%), where his approval rating hovers around 49% in each state. In Nevada, the two candidates are tied at 48%.