(Trump's chances of winning the election rise: the impact and the complex situation behind it)
The battle drums for the 2024 US presidential election have been sounded, and the world's attention is focused on this political competition that may change the world. At present, a striking phenomenon is that Trump's chance of winning has soared to 61.5%, while Harris's has dropped to 38.6%. This change in data is by no means accidental, and there are profound political, economic and social factors behind it.
Let's first look at the rise in Trump's approval rating. In key swing states, his approval rating has skyrocketed like a rocket. Take Pennsylvania, a traditional swing state with a large manufacturing and agricultural population. In the past few months, the Trump team has gone deep into these industrial workers and farmers. They found that due to the Biden administration's trade policy, local steel exports have been hit, and agricultural product prices have fluctuated due to rising logistics costs. Trump seized this point and promised in his campaign to readjust trade agreements to protect local industrial interests. This has greatly increased his support in Pennsylvania, and similar situations are also happening in other swing states such as Michigan. According to the latest RCP poll, the gap between Trump and Harris is narrowing sharply. This change has doubled the confidence of betting sites in Trump and his chances of winning have also risen.
Trump's frequent campaign activities are also the key to his rising support rate. He is like a tireless touring star, shuttling between states and holding large-scale rallies. At a rally in Texas, tens of thousands of people gathered. He talked cordially with voters and learned about their dissatisfaction with high oil prices. Trump promised on the spot that after being elected, he would vigorously promote domestic energy extraction and reduce dependence on imported oil, thereby reducing oil prices. This way of direct interaction with voters makes voters feel his attention, which makes his support group continue to expand.
Attacking opponents is Trump's specialty. He criticized the Biden administration's economic measures, such as on the issue of inflation. In the past few years, the inflation rate in the United States has continued to rise, and the cost of living for ordinary families has increased significantly. Trump pointed out that the Biden administration's massive fiscal stimulus plan is the culprit of inflation. He gave an example that an average family used to spend $500 a month on groceries, but now it has risen to $700, while wages have not increased accordingly. At the same time, on the issue of immigration, Trump accused Biden of loose border policies that have led to a large influx of illegal immigrants, snatching jobs from locals and increasing the burden of social welfare. These attacks have made voters who are dissatisfied with the status quo more inclined to him.
The current economic and social problems in the United States have created an excellent opportunity for Trump. In terms of economy, inflation is high, and the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to try to curb inflation, but the effect is limited. In Los Angeles, many small business owners are suffering because the interest rate increase has led to higher loan costs and difficulties in operation. Trump's proposed economic plans such as tax cuts are very attractive to these business owners. On the social level, social divisions caused by racial issues have intensified, and conflicts between different races have occurred from time to time in cities such as Minneapolis. Trump advocates a tough law and order policy, which has won support among some voters.
From a global perspective, if Trump wins the election, the impact will be huge. In terms of the global economy, if he continues to implement the "America First" policy, the consequences will be disastrous. Looking back at the trade war launched by Trump in 2018, it had a serious impact on the global industrial chain. At that time, the United States imposed tariffs on China and other countries, and some Chinese export-oriented companies had fewer orders and had to seek new markets and product directions. Some companies in the United States that rely on imported parts are also facing problems of rising costs and supply shortages. If he is elected this time, the imposition of tariffs on foreign countries may once again disrupt the global trade order and further push up inflation in the United States. A working paper by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) predicts that based on the policies that Trump may introduce, the US inflation rate will climb to 4.1%-7.4% by 2026, which will cause the yields of US and European bonds to rise rapidly and the international financial market to be turbulent.
In the capital market, the expectation of "re-inflation" and "increased risk" brought about by the increased probability of Trump's victory have begun to emerge. U.S. bonds have been sold off, and many investors are worried that rising inflation will erode bond returns. U.S. stocks have also become more volatile, and the share prices of large technology stocks have been like a roller coaster. Take Tesla as an example. Its stock price has fluctuated sharply several times during the period approaching the election due to market uncertainty. As an anti-inflation and safe-haven asset, gold's price fluctuations are even more dramatic. Historical data shows that the market's risk aversion is strong before the election, and Trump's uncertainty has further amplified this sentiment.
For Sino-US relations, Trump's election may make the game more complicated. During Trump's administration, he launched multiple rounds of trade sanctions against China, and Chinese high-tech companies such as Huawei were severely impacted. But at the same time, this also prompted China to accelerate its pace of independent research and development. If he is re-elected, this tough attitude may continue, but it may also, as some analysts say, push other economies to cooperate with China. For example, in the field of 5G construction, some European countries wavered in their attitude towards Huawei during the Trump era, and now they may re-examine their cooperative relationship with China, because the unilateralism of the United States may make them realize the importance of win-win cooperation.
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Trump's return to the White House may bring about huge changes in the domestic and foreign affairs of the United States. In terms of immigration policy, tough measures such as border wall construction may reappear. In the field of trade, some international agreements may be renegotiated or withdrawn. This series of measures will undoubtedly aggravate the division of American society. For example, a tough attitude on immigration policy will trigger heated debates among different groups in the country. Some organizations and people who support immigrant rights may launch large-scale protests, further deepening political polarization in the United States. In short, the increase in Trump's chances of winning the election has put the world at a crossroads full of uncertainty, and its impact deserves our continued attention and in-depth analysis.
