The crypto exchange Morpher allows taking a position on the victory of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in Tuesday’s elections.
Just yesterday, he announced this new feature.
Want to take part in the heated #USElection2024 discussion without voting? Back your candidate with Morpher and watch your predictions become profits! 
As the countdown to November 5th intensifies, Morpher introduces the US Election Market, transforming political… pic.twitter.com/tMBWlCt0bB
— Morpher (@morpher_io) October 31, 2024
Trump or Harris? The bets on the crypto exchange Morpher
There are already many other platforms, crypto or traditional, where you can bet on the outcome of the US presidential elections on November 5th, but it seems that Morpher is the only crypto exchange that allows it.
In the current state, just a few days before the vote, Donald Trump still seems to be in the lead, although in the very last few days it seems that Kamala Harris is recovering a bit of the disadvantage.
Probably it is also due to this slight recovery that there has been a small downturn in the crypto markets, given that a potential victory for Trump should favor the crypto sector in the short term.
In the medium/long term, however, the differences would probably be minimal, but since speculation operates mainly in the short term, even contained movements like these can be significant.
For example, on Polymarket, the leading crypto betting platform in the world, at this moment Trump’s victory is given at 62%, but Harris in the last two days has risen from 33% to 68%.
It should be remembered, however, that these platforms do not actually have predictive capabilities, and that the bets of the bettors are sometimes so influenced by their personal biases that they can also turn out to be wrong in the end.
The exchange Morpher
Morpher is a blockchain trading platform for stocks, criptovalute, forex, indices, and unique markets like sneakers and watches. Yesterday it released a new market, dedicated specifically to the outcome of the US presidential elections.
The new exclusive market for the United States presidential elections has been created by Morpher using stable and verifiable data feeds, and it allows taking a position in favor of a candidate and seeing that position rise or fall based on polls, news, social media, and other external factors.
In the USA, the outcome of these elections will be decided by about 160 or 170 million registered voters, but in reality, the whole world is interested in the result. For this reason, the Morpher team has decided to create this unique market specifically for this election.
Furthermore, the fact that the Morpher platform creates synthetic markets means that the actions taken on it will not affect the odds in either case. This is a very particular and original aspect of how Morpher works, given that on other platforms, bets influence the odds of winning. On Morpher, you simply attach your position to a stock, an index, a currency, and in this case, to a candidate.
The company is based in Vienna, Austria, and has been involved in decentralized finance since 2018. Its platform allows trading of virtual copies of real-world financial markets using its proprietary protocol and the MPH token. Among its investors is also Tim Draper.
The bets on the elections: Trump vs Harris on the crypto exchange Morpher
The crypto platforms in fact facilitate betting.
For example, in this case it is possible to participate in the discussion about the elections without voting, supporting a candidate and trying to turn one’s predictions into profits.
While in other cases one simply bets on the victory of a candidate, waiting until after November 5th to discover who will have won, in this case various pieces of information are gradually gathered in the preceding days that can influence the probability of victory, so that the positions taken on the platform by the bettors reflect the current potential for victory.
The betting market is enormous, and when global events of this magnitude come into play, with a certain outcome and predictable frequency, they manage to attract many bettors.
It is not surprising, therefore, that there are many platforms that allow betting on the outcome of these elections, and it is particularly interesting that different platforms allow for slightly different types of bets.
The token MPH
MPH is a token on Ethereum.
In reality, there are several tokens with the ticker MPH, but the one from Morpher is easily recognizable because its name is precisely Morpher.
It was launched on the crypto markets in 2020, with an initial price of about 18 thousandths of a dollar.
During the last great bullrun, it reached its all-time highs at 88 thousandths in May 2021, while during the subsequent bear-market, it fell below 10 thousandths.
During 2023, it returned above 20 thousandths, and in March of this year, it also returned above 30 thousandths.
The current price of 15 thousandths of a dollar is even lower than the initial one in 2020, but it is a token whose value always seems to oscillate around a constant level, positioned around or just below 20 thousandths of a dollar.
Although this is not enough to claim that it will continue to behave this way in the future, net of bubbles and bear markets, so far it seems to have always done so in its four-year history.