Non-farm payrolls on Friday, a simple interpretation!
Since the self-draw high of 73,000, we have encountered a significant drop, attributed to negative market sentiment or a washout; however, this is largely a pre-digestion of the non-farm data! According to Wednesday's ADP report, Friday's non-farm employment should maintain good growth, and last night's initial jobless claims data supports this as well. The substantial pullback before the data is basically a reaction to the pre-digestion of the information!
Before the non-farm data, the overall market volatility should not be very large. If the bearish sentiment continues, a sharp drop in the morning and whether the European session can extend this drop is crucial. If the European session continues to decline, then the U.S. session will undoubtedly follow with a sharp drop. Conversely, if the market shows strength, a rebound will occur first. As of now, the momentum has not yet unfolded; if the low of 68,500 is held, then the probability of a breakout is minimal! Or let the market's non-farm data provide a decisive conclusion!
October's non-farm employment data has a previous value of 254,000, with expectations of only 113,000. The pessimistic expectation for employment numbers is less than half of last month's figures, which is bullish for the cryptocurrency market, at least in terms of sentiment!
In terms of operations, I believe one should not chase shorts. After the sharp drop at the market open in the morning, there is a gradual rebound in the afternoon. Although the magnitude is not large, there are no signs of further decline. The U.S. session's October non-farm data is about to be released, and the volatility of the Asian and European sessions is generally poor, making it unnecessary and unwarranted to short!
In the past, rapid declines before non-farm data have not continued. Although it cannot be directly concluded that the same result will occur now, considering the characteristics of a rising bull market and the morning's movements, the cost-effectiveness of chasing shorts is not high, and it is quite far from the previous bullish-bearish dividing point, indicating a technical need for a rebound and correction! Therefore, today's non-farm data is about watching the rebound rhythm, with a strong support level at 68,200 and resistance at 72,200! In terms of operations, one can look for a bullish rebound! Meanwhile, for long-term positioning, this phase can be a good entry point!
Additionally, pay attention to tonight's non-farm data; the market expectation is only 114,000. If the figures exceed expectations, it may be negative for the cryptocurrency market!