Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday (31st) showed that the PCE price index in September increased by 2.1% year-on-year, hitting a new low since the beginning of 2021, in line with market expectations. The core PCE, excluding energy and food prices, increased by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly higher than the market expectation of 2.6%, but the same as the previous value.
With the release of PCE data, market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in November have further strengthened. The current probability of a 1 basis point rate cut has reached 94.5%, and the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 5.5%.
Although inflation was under control, the four major U.S. stock indexes were affected, especially Meta and Microsoft, whose Q3 earnings reports released on the 30th failed to inspire investors, leading to a decline in the overall market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 378.08 points, the S&P 500 fell 108.22 points, the Nasdaq fell sharply by 512.78 points, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 206.75 points. Although Meta and Microsoft's performance exceeded expectations, investors' risk aversion increased due to Meta's user growth not meeting expectations and the slowdown in Microsoft's Azure business.
Affected by the US stock market, Bitcoin once fell below $70,000, hitting a low of $69,688, but has since rebounded, with the current price back above $70,000. The drop in the last 24 hours is 3.12%. In the short term, whether Bitcoin can stabilize and continue to rise may still be influenced by the trend of the US stock market.
The drop in Bitcoin has also led to a general decline in the entire cryptocurrency market, with mainstream coins such as Ethereum, SOL, and ADA experiencing declines of 3% to 4%. The total liquidation amount across the network is nearly $228 million, with over 80,000 people encountering liquidation.
Currently, Bitcoin's lowest point is 68830. From the liquidation chart, there is no panic selling state at present. Normally, it should not drop to around 64100, because too many short positions have increased above, and it is expected to pull back up.
The 12-hour line has touched the middle Bollinger Band and rebounded. From the daily line, there are also signs of a rebound, but the MACD shows signs of breaking below the golden line. Consider building positions in batches around 68800 and 64200.
First target position around 69800.
Second target position around 70200.
Third target position around 72200.
If the number of long positions continues to increase, it may affect the rebound momentum. The market could change at any time. Data will be released tonight, so it can be monitored.
