Bitcoin slightly retreated last night following the US stock market, which was expected, as various factors can cause rises or pullbacks before the election. Additionally, there are too many long positions; this part must be cleared out before a normal rise can occur.
Bitcoin is currently testing the support around 68,000, and the market is more in a wait-and-see attitude these days, waiting for the results of the US election. Therefore, short-term leverage users need to be cautious about risks, but our overall judgment on the market has not changed.
Today I want to share some thoughts:
1. After reviewing, the last small bull market profits came from major hotspots: arkm (ai), bome (meme), fish (meme), not (meme). These are coins that can make money immediately upon purchase. Holding pyth and pendle for the long term made a small profit, but I didn't take profits in time, resulting in nearly zero gains. I had too much faith in not and fish, leading to significant profit loss.
2. DWF's pump was very strong, fet, arkm, and floki were thoroughly washed during the pump, all within a major trend. I expect the next round of pump coins to be among these.
3. I anticipate that after the election, there may not be an immediate bull market because liquidity is still lacking. In fact, liquidity is concerning, and there has been long-term PVP in the market. The market makers can't pump at this time because they would be cut by the old retail investors. It really depends on liquidity, and there might be market movement towards the end of the year. The specific targets need to be evaluated based on K-line and weekly charts, entering only when trends are stabilizing.
4. Specific targets: AI, meme. If liquidity meets the standards, and there are sufficient washings, along with key events: chatgpt5 release. Emm, AI may have another big wave.
5. The meme leaders will lead the market significantly when liquidity is ample, and then a month later, everyone will collapse together, starting the next cycle.
Historically, all bull market cycles in the crypto space have been driven by BTC. It is normal to see repeated new highs; the bulls will eventually crush the bears' desperate struggles. Now we just need to patiently wait for BTC's new highs.
Although Bitcoin is currently hovering near historical highs, the market atmosphere is quite quiet. The reason is quite simple: a lot of retail investors outside the market have not yet entered, and the market frenzy is far from arriving.
In the last strong uptrend (2023/10——2024/3), altcoins rebounded strongly.
Many altcoins have risen 3-4 times from their lows, and new coins in popular fields (like AI and memes) have risen 10 times during this period.
However—until February, a large number of retail investors outside the market will truly start to return; new retail investors usually only enter the market when it has risen to a certain height, entering recklessly. Prices have risen for several months, and they often enter in the last month of each bull market.
90% of the market is garbage time, and 80% of the gains (along with the ensuing 80% of retail investor frenzy) occur in the last 20% of the market.
Currently, most altcoins have only risen for 4 weeks, and this is after 6 months of decline.
In the last wave, external new investors took 5 months to start paying attention to the market and entering; this time will be similar to the last time. In fact, it is always the same; a large number of external new investors will only start entering months after the market has begun. However, this time will be quicker because the last wave (2023/10——2024/3) has already laid the foundation for market confidence.
Bitcoin breaks new highs, and the market will be a huge siphon. The upward spiral will continue for months, and the wealth effect brought by Bitcoin's rise will soon radiate to altcoins. Therefore, be patient before this happens!
How to break free from being trapped in altcoins?
Active exit
1. If you bought the wrong coin, especially after chasing high on a big rise, be decisive and cut losses early to protect your wallet. There are many opportunities in the market, and as long as the money is still there, recovery will be easier.
2. If the coins you hold are not performing well and continue to drop, then see which other coins are about to rise, and quickly switch to them, using the new profits to cover old losses.
3. If you are deeply trapped and think prices will continue to fall, sell a portion and wait to buy back at a lower price, thus reducing your cost.
Passive exit
1. If you bought at a low price and believe the market will improve, invest a little more at intervals, but don't add too many times; timing is crucial.
2. If you are fully invested and trapped with no funds to supplement and are reluctant to cut losses, then just wait. As long as the money is your own and not borrowed, be patient, and maybe one day you will be freed.
Remember, being trapped is not the end of the world. Don't act impulsively, maintain a steady mindset; opportunities will always arise.
In the next few days, everyone must pay extra attention because every action from the US could turn into a super event that determines the direction of the global market. At 8:30 PM tonight, the US will announce non-farm payroll data, on the 6th the US election results will be released, and on the 8th the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate decision meeting.
