Is there going to be a crash tonight??
At 20:30 tonight, the highly anticipated U.S. non-farm payroll data for October will be revealed! The market generally predicts that the number of new jobs added will be 140,000, a decrease from 254,000 in September. Let’s take a look together at how the market might react based on different scenarios after the data is released.
Higher than expected growth:
If the non-farm data exceeds the market expectation of 140,000 new jobs, it would undoubtedly be good news, indicating that the U.S. labor market is still vibrant. In this case, investor confidence in the U.S. economy may significantly increase, pushing the dollar exchange rate higher. Meanwhile, precious metals markets such as gold and silver may feel some pressure, as investors may lean towards higher-risk assets. Additionally, this could clarify market expectations for future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
In line with expectations:
If the actual data is close to the market expectation of 140,000 new jobs, it may suggest that the U.S. economy is in a relatively stable development phase. At this time, market reactions may be relatively calm, but investors will still closely study other details in the data, such as the unemployment rate and average hourly wage, to further understand the health of the economy.
Below expectations:
If the number of new jobs added is below market expectations when the data is released, caution is warranted. This may indicate that the growth momentum in the U.S. labor market is weakening and could even be hiding some economic issues. In this scenario, investors may become concerned about the economic outlook for the U.S., leading to a decline in the dollar exchange rate. Precious assets like gold and silver may become new favorites for investors, with prices rising accordingly. Meanwhile, the market may also anticipate the Federal Reserve taking a more accommodative monetary policy to address potential economic slowdown risks.
Tonight's non-farm data will undoubtedly stir the nerves of the global market. Let's wait and see how the market reacts after the data is released!
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