On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor released the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, showing that the core PCE price index in September increased by 2.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.6%. The PCE price index for September was 2.1%, the lowest level since early 2021, slightly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.
After the data was released, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond (TNX) briefly rose to 4.33%, leading to a decline in financial markets.
By the close, the three major U.S. indices all fell sharply, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq down 1.86%, 0.90%, and 2.76% respectively.
According to BitPush data, Bitcoin fell below the support level of $72,000 around noon, then dropped below $70,000. As of the time of this report, Bitcoin was trading at $70,452, with a 24-hour decline of nearly 3%.
Altcoins fell broadly, with SOL dropping below $170 and BNB falling below $580, with a 24-hour decline of over 3%. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently $2.34 trillion, with Bitcoin's market share at 59%.
Although the Federal Reserve watch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) indicates that the market generally expects both of the last two FOMC meetings in 2024 to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, investors remain cautious ahead of the U.S. presidential election.
Trump's winning probability decreases
Data from the cryptocurrency betting site Polymarket shows that the probability of Trump winning has decreased from 67% two days ago to 63%, while the chances of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris have risen from 33% to 36%.
Meanwhile, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) have plummeted 34% over the past three days, while DJT's stock rose 352% last month.
Brian Rudick, head of research at cryptocurrency trading firm GSR, pointed out: "Since Trump began accepting digital assets in May, the correlation between Trump's election win probability and Bitcoin prices has only been 25-35%". However, he noted that this correlation could increase as election day approaches.
Is Uptober realized?
Overall, Bitcoin experienced a flash crash to $58,855 on October 10, but then began a rebound, rising to near historical highs, with a current 30-day increase of approximately 16.08%. According to market analyst Nagato, a closing price below $71,400 this month would indicate "failure."
In an article on X, he wrote: "Bitcoin is still some time away from its monthly closing price, which could become one of the most important closing prices in Bitcoin's history. $71,400 is the bottom line. If it closes above this level, it will further validate Uptober."
TradingView analyst TradingShot noted that as the month comes to a close, unless BTC drops $7,000 in the next few hours, it will close in green. He said: "This will be the second consecutive green monthly close since March."
Analysts stated: "This seven-month consolidation period is not unfamiliar to Bitcoin, as it is common to see several consecutive months of non-green closes during accumulation phases in a bull market."
TradingShot emphasized: "So far, in the current bull market, we have gone through three such phases (including March 2024). Once the market achieves two consecutive months of green monthly closes, a rebound will occur. The bull market from 2019-2021 had three such consecutive green monthly closes and a very clear accumulation phase, while the 2015-2018 bull market had countless instances. From this long-term chart, it is clear that when the market achieves two consecutive months of green monthly closes, it has always been a good buy signal."
