Trump confidently leads with 33.9% in bets on Polymarket.

The elections are about to start, but I want to convey one thought to you. The probability of Trump winning is actually not 67%, but around 48 - 49, as the advantage towards any opponent on Polymarket is determined by the volume of bets, not by social polls, etc.

Nearly $1,000,000,000 has been bet on Donald Trump winning, while over $618,000,000 has been bet on Kamala Harris winning. That’s where this advantage comes from.

It’s difficult to predict who will win, so let’s just wait for the announcement of the results.