The H4 chart is providing more reasons to understand BTC's movement at this time.
I write this analysis with both scenarios (bullish and bearish), key levels of support and resistance, and the current indications from the indicators.
Let's look at the following chart (H4):
Bullish Scenario:
Current resistance: The $73,620 area is the most recent resistance level. This was the local high reached before the current pullback. For the price to regain a bullish path, it needs to surpass this level with good volume.
Next bullish targets: If the price manages to surpass $73,620, the next target is near $75,000-76,000, which represents an important psychological level and could act as a temporary barrier before a wider move towards $80,000.
Moving averages: The 7 MA (yellow) and the 25 MA (pink) are on an upward slope, indicating short and medium-term momentum. If these averages remain above the current price, they could act as dynamic support for potential corrections, favoring bullish continuity.
Bearish Scenario:
Key supports: In the short term, immediate support is at $70,000. If the price breaks this level, the next significant support is around $66,000-68,000, coinciding with the 99 MA (purple), which represents a medium-term support.
Oversold indicators: The Stochastic RSI shows that the asset is in the oversold zone (values of 9.70 and 17.05), which could indicate that the price is losing bearish momentum in the short term, but if this indicator continues to decline, it could signal a more prolonged correction.
MACD: Currently, the MACD is showing a bearish crossover, which is a warning sign, as it indicates that the previous bullish momentum is weakening. If the histogram continues to decrease, this suggests that the price could continue to decline, at least in the short term.
Summary and Final Considerations:
To confirm a new bullish momentum, BTC needs to surpass and consolidate above $73,620. An increase in volume would be ideal to confirm this breakout.
If the price fails to hold the $70,000 support, we could see a larger correction, bringing the price to test $66,000-68,000 USDT.
Current indicators suggest caution, as the MACD and Stochastic RSI are in weakness or oversold zones, which could lead to a correction in the short term before a new bullish attempt.
This analysis can be used as a reference for making informed decisions, taking into account the current volatility and the possible market reaction to these key levels.
