"Mint a Zora NFT for self-defense" — Is this phrase familiar to everyone? As an innovative NFT platform, Zora has attracted many users and developers, completing 72 million transactions on-chain in a short period, with active addresses reaching 760,000. Today, let's discuss Zora's possible airdrop rules and the potential value of the airdrop, and delve deeper with uncle.

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I. Airdrop rule analysis

Although there is currently no official confirmation, some participating rules and conditions are believed to potentially affect airdrop eligibility. Here are some circulated conditions and speculated rules:

  • Minting NFTs: Minting at least 10 NFTs on the Zora official website is considered a basic requirement for participating in the airdrop.

  • Creating NFT collections: Create your own NFT collections across multiple chains to showcase cross-chain creation capabilities.

  • Official application interaction: Publish and mint NFTs through Zora's official application, showcasing deep interaction with the platform.

  • Social account association: Link personal social network accounts (such as Twitter, Instagram, etc.) and email with the Zora account to verify personal identity.

  • Batch minting of NFTs: Minting 11, 111, or 1111 NFTs at once, this batch minting method is considered to potentially receive higher rewards.

  • Minting comments: Leave comments on the minting page to increase personal interaction records.

  • Tip creators on the Zora platform: By tipping creators for their works, increase community interaction and enhance chances of receiving airdrops.

Additionally, you can see Zora's ranking on Dune~ (https://dune.com/sealaunch/zora-network)

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III. FDV and airdrop analysis

Zora's Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) can be estimated through various methods to reflect its market potential and user activity. Here are several quantitative analyses from different perspectives:

Financing valuation method
Zora Labs raised 50 million USD in 2022, led by Haun Ventures, with other participating investors including Coinbase Ventures and Kindred Ventures. This financing round's post-investment valuation is approximately 600 million USD. Assuming the 600 million USD post-investment valuation already includes full token dilution, then FDV is 600 million USD.

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User activity and income multiple method
According to Dune data, Zora Network's total profit is 504.10 ETH. Calculating at a price of 600 USD per ETH, considering a profit margin of 34.5%, Zora's annual income is approximately: income = 1,310,660 / 0.345 = 3,800,000 USD

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Based on the current annual income of 3.8 million USD, using the income multiple method (20-50 times) to estimate FDV:

  • Lower income multiple (20 times): FDV = 3,800,000 * 20 = 76 million USD

  • Higher income multiple (50 times): FDV = 3,800,000 * 50 = 190 million USD

👉 Therefore, Zora's reasonable FDV range is between 76 million and 190 million USD.

Airdrop value prediction

Assuming Zora allocates 10% of its total supply for airdrop rewards, we can predict the value of the airdrop based on two different FDV valuation models:

  1. Estimation based on 600 million USD FDV
    Under this valuation, Zora's airdrop pool is expected to be60 million USD, this amount will be distributed to eligible early supporters and active users.

  2. FDV estimated based on on-chain income
    Through on-chain data analysis and income multiple method, Zora's FDV is estimated to be between76 million to 190 million USD. Assuming a midpoint within this range, for example, 130 million USD as a more conservative FDV, 10% of the airdrop value is approximately13 million USD.

Summary

Before the token economics, airdrop ratio, and specific airdrop rules are finalized, uncle can only provide a rough estimate of the average airdrop income per wallet. Please see the analysis:

In an optimistic scenario, if Zora's FDV is 600 million USD, and the total value of the airdrop is 60 million USD, assuming that 70% of addresses qualify for the airdrop, then each eligible address is expected to receive approximately 112.78 USD in airdrop income. In a pessimistic scenario, if Zora's FDV drops to 130 million USD, the corresponding total value of the airdrop would be 13 million USD, and each eligible address would average approximately 24.4 USD.

So, uncle writes up to here, probably has a rough idea in mind, does everyone think it should continue to defend itself? Or be more relaxed in interaction? 🤪