On October 30, financial market performance was mixed. Spot gold set a new historical high while Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase after approaching its all-time high the previous day.
In the U.S. stock market, the S&P 500 index, Dow Jones index, and Nasdaq index all closed lower, down 0.33%, 0.22%, and 0.56% respectively.
Macroeconomic data is mixed: the U.S. GDP growth rate for the third quarter slowed to 2.8%, below the expected 3%. However, the labor market performed better than expected, indicating strong economic fundamentals.
The latest data did not change the market's expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the November FOMC meeting, but ahead of key data releases such as the monthly PCE index and employment report in September, investors chose to remain cautious.
Although BTC has seen a short-term pullback, various factors including the derivatives market, on-chain data, and the macroeconomic environment indicate that the long-term upward trend of Bitcoin remains intact.
Derivatives market: strong demand supports high premiums.
Data from laevitas.ch shows that the annualized premium of current Bitcoin futures contracts is as high as 13%, far exceeding the neutral market level. This indicates strong bullish sentiment in the market regarding future Bitcoin prices, with investors willing to pay higher premiums for longer holding periods.
The options market remains active, showing that investors are highly focused on future price volatility. High premiums and an active options market together indicate the market's long-term optimism about Bitcoin.
On-chain data: net outflow from exchanges, indicating increased long-term holding willingness.
On-chain data shows an increase in the net outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges, indicating that investors are transferring Bitcoin to cold wallets for long-term holding. This further supports the market's long-term optimism about Bitcoin.
Glassnode's chart of the 6-hour average net transfer volume from exchanges shows that despite a brief increase in deposits after BTC broke $70,000, it then turned into a net outflow, indicating that investors are locking in profits and preparing for future increases.
From a technical perspective, TradingView analyst Arman Shaban believes that once Bitcoin breaks its all-time high, its price will rise to $77,000 or even higher.
He said: "By analyzing the Bitcoin charts on a weekly timeframe, we can see that Bitcoin has risen more than 10% since the last analysis, climbing from $66,500 to $73,600, now just $100 away from its all-time high. After that, Bitcoin slightly corrected to $72,000, and I still expect the previous high to be broken soon, with Bitcoin reaching higher levels. The next bullish targets are $77,000, $81,700, and $93,800."
Technical analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated on platform X that $86,200 is a significant technical level for Bitcoin in the current cycle. By conducting an in-depth study of short-term holder data, he found that this price level represents the upper limit of current market risk appetite.
Adler stated: "At the level of $86,200, the fate of the bull market will be determined. If the price breaks this point and forms strong bullish momentum, we will finally see what everyone has been waiting for."
