Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is illustrated here on the 1W time-frame from the 2011 Cycle until today. We've used the Gaussian Channel (GC) after a long time and the reason is simple. Since the August 05 2024 Low, it has been supporting the uptrend up to today's test of the All Time High (ATH).
Gaussian October support every 4 years
This continuous support is a critical feature moving forward as every time the GC held at this stage of the previous Cycles (October 2020, 2016 and 2012), BTC started its final (and most aggressive) Parabolic Rally of the Cycle.
Resistance turned Support
What's equally interesting is that during those stages, the price also re-tested and held the former Resistance (of the previous Higher High), turned it into a Support (while the GC held) and bounced to the Parabolic Rally. This is a remarkably consistent feature taking place every 4 years!
The green GC length matters
Now as to the GC in more detail. What we want you to keep from it, is that the green part of the GC has lasted in the previous Cycles 123, 144 and 148 weeks respectively, which translates to 861, 1008 and 1036 days, until it turned red. As a result, we can expect the current green phase to last until December 08 2025 (minimum) and June 01 2026 (maximum). It is more reasonable to expect the longer case as the recent Cycles tend to have stabilized most of their common time patterns.
The Bear Cycle tends to start when a 1W candle is closed below the GC. Until then, based on the parallel Channel Up patterns that encompass 3 Cycles each time, we can even expect a price as high as $200000 for this Cycle Top.
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