Ethereum still holds a significant first-mover advantage in the decentralized space; however, whether it can maintain its core value will require finding a new balance between L2 developments and other narrative trends. This article originates from a long post by BTC_chopsticks, organized, translated, and written by PANews. (Background: Ethereum loyal OG fires back: Five reasons why Solana is unlikely to become a global mainstream blockchain) (Supplementary Background: Perspective: What exactly has caused Ethereum (ETH) to lose its vitality?) Ethereum was once considered the 'blue-chip asset' of the crypto market, with widespread belief that its price would reach new highs in the future, potentially even surpassing $10,000. However, since 2022, ETH's performance has been lackluster. Does this indicate that Vitalik and Ethereum's future face challenges? Let's delve into the reasons behind this. 1. The gap between expectations and reality In the past two years, Ethereum's major upgrades have filled people with hope for its future, especially the 'deflationary' effect on ETH supply. However, the actual market performance has been surprising. Despite a series of scaling and upgrades, ETH's market performance has lagged significantly, even being outperformed by BTC and other tokens (like Solana). 2. The failure of the ETH ETF Many people expected the launch of the ETH ETF to drive up ETH prices, but the outcome has been disappointing. Unlike the upward trend during the Bitcoin ETF launch, the ETH ETF listing has seen capital outflows, partly due to the sell-off pressure from Grayscale's leftover products. 3. The 'unexpected' effects of upgrades The Ethereum Merge and EIP-1559 have indeed successfully reduced ETH issuance; however, the latest Dencun upgrade, while lowering the cost of writing data to the main chain, has indirectly reduced ETH's revenue sources, unexpectedly diminishing the token's appreciation potential. 4. Concerns triggered by Vitalik's ETH sell-off Ethereum founder Vitalik recently sold a portion of ETH to support development. Although the amount sold was relatively small, it generated negative sentiment in the market. Some investors believe this may imply Vitalik's lack of confidence in ETH, even though Vitalik has repeatedly stated that the price of ETH is not a priority for him. 5. Absence in emerging trends Currently, many emerging trends in the market—such as AI, RWA (real-world assets), and memecoins—have largely not chosen Ethereum as their primary platform. Many emerging AI projects (like Fetch, TAO) and RWA projects have opted for more suitable independent networks and underlying architectures, while in the memecoin space, Solana's performance is clearly more impressive. This means that while Ethereum has opened the door to decentralization, other networks are becoming the dominant players in the latest narratives. 6. The future value fate of ETH Currently, ETH remains a backbone of the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem, accounting for over 55% of total locked value. However, with the rise of L2 scaling solutions, future Ethereum may face a dilemma of 'ecological prosperity but token value failing to materialize,' similar to the $ATOM coin in the Cosmos ecosystem. Personal outlook Although I once firmly believed that ETH's price would reach $10,000, I have become more cautious about this goal. ETH still accounts for 30% of my investment portfolio, but in the next bull market, I may gradually sell part of my assets while holding the remaining portion to observe its future performance in the long term. Conclusion: The network utility and ecological status of ETH remain solid, but recent performance has raised considerable market concerns. Although ETH is still a leader in the industry, if it fails to adapt to emerging trends, it may gradually lose some of its dominant position in the future. Ethereum still possesses significant first-mover advantages in the decentralized space; however, whether it can maintain its core value will require finding a new balance between L2 developments and other narrative trends.

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