Yesterday, Bitcoin's daytime performance was overall good. After a morning surge, it retreated, then resumed its rise in the afternoon, but began to decline after the US stock market opened. Financial media released news about Israel's airstrike on Iran at 7:30 AM, and the Bitcoin market reacted quickly, sharply dropping below $65,600. However, the cryptocurrency market often leads real events — this drop actually started in the early hours.
Last night, Bitcoin experienced two bottoms near $65,000, with strong buy support appearing in both spot and contract markets around this position. Just as it takes multiple attempts to break through resistance levels during rallies, it similarly requires multiple attempts to successfully break down at critical support levels.
The fluctuating positions in the contract market have also significantly decreased, indicating that most of the bearish positions have taken profits, while the chasing bulls have mostly stopped loss or been liquidated.
Let's take a look at the liquidation data again.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 147,106 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount reaching $407 million. This liquidation volume is second only to the $966 million on August 5 and the $532 million on October 1. From this data, the current market bottom has begun to show, with the support level of $65,000 basically established (unless a black swan event occurs).
The liquidation situation of BTC and ETH is almost identical, indicating that although many criticize ETH, they still secretly leverage long positions on it. Gamblers seem to always have endless funds to lose. The scale of yesterday's long liquidations was considerable, which aligns with the earlier mentioned decline in positions. Therefore, short positions can consider partial profit-taking; otherwise, repeated profit withdrawals will greatly test the psychological endurance of position holders.
The liquidation volume of altcoins has exceeded that of BTC and ETH, which is relatively rare and indicates that the altcoin market is in a state of 'blood flowing like rivers'. Not only is the contract market affected, but the spot market is as well. However, I want to encourage everyone — the main upward trend of altcoins usually rises slowly in the first two months. When the overall market consolidates at a high level, altcoins often surge several times within 2-3 weeks, and by that time, the market is basically nearing its end. To seize this wave of the market, the key is to endure the torment of fluctuations and stick with this ride, even though the process may be quite torturous.
Next, here are the operational suggestions:
For short positions under fluctuating conditions, partial profit-taking can be considered, but for long-term bearish positions, they can still be held. On the long side, if you are a firm believer in bullish sentiment, seeking support around 653 for speculation is a wise choice, rather than expecting to open long positions above 68 in anticipation of 80,000.
How will subsequent events develop and how will they affect cryptocurrency?
Today is Saturday, and both the US stock market and Bitcoin ETF market are closed. Whether the current geopolitical conflict will escalate and whether it will impact the US stock market and Nikkei index on Monday, subsequently affecting the cryptocurrency market, is worth paying attention to.
Yesterday, the Bitcoin ETF still maintained a net inflow status, with a total inflow of 5,884 units. From Bitcoin's perspective, the downside space may be limited in the short term. Even if unexpected conflict events occur, the trend is likely to be a short-term pullback pin shape, making the possibility of sustained declines relatively low.
The impact of war on Bitcoin is relatively indirect, mainly transmitted through the potential bubble risks of the US stock market. If the US stock market experiences a significant drop (such as the circuit breaker event on March 12), it may have a significant negative impact on Bitcoin. Therefore, Bitcoin's breakthrough is more a matter of time. Altcoins are currently once again in a slump, and operations need to be more cautious.
The election on the 6th of next month is approaching, and the interest rate cut news will be announced on the 7th. Therefore, there is still room for market fluctuations in the previous week. I am optimistic about the bottom-fishing opportunities at the end of the month and expect Bitcoin to potentially break through $70,000 at the beginning of the month. For the Trump concept meme, I recommend clearing positions in advance, as it peaked ten days ago; typically, such favorable news opportunities need to be laid out months in advance, with gradual exits from half a month to a month before the event node, especially when market enthusiasm is high.
Bitcoin will continue to experience fluctuations; the main forces will use various news in conjunction with technical trends to stir up the retail investors. It’s a matter of who can hold on. Life is like a candlestick; without declines, you won't reach peaks. As the market goes down, stay calm; panicking is meaningless.
The success of any investment relies on patience, analytical ability, execution power, and position management. These seemingly minor details, when combined, form a system that cultivates good investment habits. Having good habits can help us avoid common mistakes. In the cryptocurrency or stock market, we must learn to accept the reality of declines, but we must never go all-in or leverage before a drop, and we certainly must not buy high and sell low.
For those who like spot or contracts, no long!!!
Leave below: 168. No long positions for you! Click on my avatar to take a serious look!
