Last week and the week before, funds were flowing into the ETF like crazy, totaling over 2.3 billion USD. Logically, the CB spot market should have followed suit and risen, but instead, they were just making small trades on the side.
What does this mean? It means that the ETF management company, after receiving the funds, doesn't rush to buy BTC spot, but waits for the price to drop before buying. This way, they can profit from the price difference, essentially 'shorting' the buy orders.
When the big shots in the futures market saw this, they immediately started pushing the price up. Within a week, BTC soared from 62,000 to 69,000. The ETF side was in trouble; the higher the price went, the harder it became for them to buy BTC at the original price for small investors. In the end, the big shots in the CB spot market couldn't stand it anymore and dumped a large number of sell orders at high positions, partly to scare the market and partly hoping the price would drop, or that the futures bulls would get flustered first. As soon as the price dropped, they could take the opportunity to buy BTC at a low price or refund the money to those ETF investors wanting to withdraw.
At that time, other exchanges were selling, while only CB was buying heavily. The net inflow into the ETF was pitiful, and may even have been negative, indicating that CB's buy orders were likely from last week's ETF subscriptions. Moreover, they probably didn't gain any advantage from us but rather reluctantly bought back the BTC that they should have purchased earlier at the average price.
These buy orders became the exit liquidity for the futures big shots after they pumped the market. Looking at the growth of futures positions, CME is the main player, followed by Binance. It seems this matter isn't over yet; CB will likely continue to buy spot in the future.
If this guess is true, then the futures big shots at CME and Binance are really ruthless, catching the ETF managers off guard and pulling a massive amount of wool.
In simple terms, this means that the ETF is exploiting the time difference to arbitrage between small investors, shorting our spot. Once the price drops, they buy back the spot to profit, or wait for us to sell the ETF at a low price to make money.
As a result, the ETF's short position was squeezed out by the futures market, leading to a 'futures pump, ETF spot taking over' routine, allowing the futures big shots to exit smoothly. If this logic is correct, then last cycle's bullish trend in futures may not have been due to any Trump Trade sentiment or Carry Trade liquidity overflow but rather a counterattack by the futures market against the ETF for stealing our profits during long-term high-range fluctuations.
This situation has already occurred with gold ETFs. Long-term wide fluctuations in high-level ranges are most suitable for such operations. With plenty of chips and funds in the ETF's hands, controlling the market isn't impossible.
This also explains why BTC, after the spot ETF, clearly broke the historical high, yet could still oscillate at high positions for more than seven months! Because this kind of market allows ETF investors not to leave easily (there's always someone supporting during dips), and also lets them gamble against us to earn more money during the fluctuations.
To put it bluntly, this is a game of capital; as long as there's profit, any trick can be thought of.
This matter, although just speculation, does seem a bit off with CB's premium and trading situation. We all hope the ETF can bring hope to BTC, but let's not end up being prey in a capital hunt.