Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser2010)
As the U.S. election nears its conclusion, the future direction of the crypto market, which is heavily influenced by U.S. political and economic factors, has become a focal point of market attention.
Will Bitcoin prices break new highs as hoped? Will Ethereum prices remain in their current sluggish state? Will the Solana ecosystem's meme coin craze continue? Can altcoin markets gradually warm up? Odaily Planet Daily will analyze the current views on the U.S. election situation and the crypto market in this article for readers' reference.
Latest poll: Trump temporarily leads, with Harris closely following.
Overall, the current Republican presidential candidate Trump is temporarily leading in election support rates, though by a narrow margin; Democratic presidential candidate and current Vice President Harris is slightly behind.
Brief analysis of U.S. election rules: 270 electoral votes are key.
According to the rules of the U.S. election, the 50 states have a certain number of electoral votes, totaling 538 nationwide; a candidate who wins 270 or more will prevail. All states, except for two (Nebraska and Maine), adopt a 'winner-takes-all' rule, meaning that once a candidate receives a majority of votes in that state, they will receive all of that state's electoral votes. Most states overwhelmingly support one party, so the campaigning focus typically falls on about ten swing states, referred to as 'battleground states.'
From U.S. elections over the years, the decisive factors for success are the seven 'swing states', which together have 94 electoral votes. Their results will determine who occupies the presidential seat.
Latest poll: Trump's support rate is as high as 52%.
Latest polls show Trump leading Harris, with 52% of voters supporting Trump for president.
Earlier reports indicated that Trump led Harris by 47% to 45% in a Wall Street Journal poll.
In the latest poll conducted by the Financial Times in the UK, Trump leads Harris on economic issues.
The latest betting information from the crypto prediction market Polymarket shows that Trump's winning odds are 60.7%, while Harris's are 39.4%.
According to information from the well-known U.S. political election website RCP, the predicted combination of Trump/Vance is expected to secure more key votes from swing states, potentially winning 312 electoral votes and ultimately prevailing.
Predicted results of the U.S. election ballot boxes.
Market viewpoint: Trump's election odds are highly correlated with the price trend of crypto assets.
Previously, Monad's head of growth Intern expressed that the curve of Trump's winning odds on Polymarket is highly positively correlated with Bitcoin's price trend.
The graphics selected data from March to October this year.
QCP Capital previously noted in a report that as the chances of a Trump victory increase, the market expects his crypto policies to be more favorable than Harris's, further enhancing the positive correlation between crypto assets and a Trump win.
As analyzed by Galaxy Research earlier, although Harris is more friendly towards cryptocurrency policy than the current President Biden, in terms of market sentiment, she is far behind Trump. After all, Harris has promised to improve the regulatory environment for the U.S. crypto industry, but has taken a more cautious stance on issues like taxes, Bitcoin mining, and self-custody, while Trump supports Bitcoin mining and promises to protect self-custody rights.
Research by Bitfinex Alpha also noted that the correlation between Bitcoin's price trend and Trump's election odds has strengthened, as investors evaluate the potential impact of a Republican victory on future crypto regulations, leading the cryptocurrency market to exhibit heightened sensitivity to the U.S. election. Additionally, the open interest (OI) for Bitcoin perpetual contracts and futures contracts has surged to a historic high of over $40 billion, reflecting increased speculative activity, indicating that the current price trend is largely driven by leveraged futures positions rather than spot market demand.
The 'key men' behind the candidates: Musk splashes $75 million, Bill Gates angrily pressures $50 million.
The U.S. presidential election involves not only political choices but also various aspects of the U.S. economy. The key to winning lies in support in terms of funding, resources, and momentum. By examining the 'key men' behind Trump and Harris, we can gain insight into the directional preferences in the political and economic arena of the U.S.
Musk: The 'first person' to rally for Trump.
Earlier, according to documents from the U.S. Federal Election Commission, Elon Musk donated $75 million to a PAC supporting Trump. Moreover, last Thursday, Musk delivered a campaign speech for Trump in the swing state of Pennsylvania; subsequently, he called on Pennsylvania voters to express their support for Trump through various campaign signs, announcing at an event that starting from that day (October 19) until the election day on November 5, he would randomly distribute $1 million to registered voters in Pennsylvania who signed a petition for the 'America PAC.' The first winner of the day has already been announced.
It must be said that Musk has contributed money, personnel, and effort to Trump's campaign, so it's no wonder Trump previously stated, 'Thank you, Elon Musk, for giving me the best support.'
Bill Gates: Donated about $50 million to Harris's campaign organization privately.
Bill Gates, the former richest person in the U.S. who has been out of politics for decades, privately stated that he recently donated about $50 million to the nonprofit organization Future Forward, which supports Vice President Harris's campaign. This donation was originally meant to be secret. A person familiar with Gates' thoughts revealed that in private conversations with friends and others this year, he expressed concerns about the prospect of Trump being re-elected, although he emphasized that he could work with any candidate.
Billionaire Bill Ackman: If Trump is elected, I will do everything I can to help.
Billionaire Bill Ackman stated that Harris and Trump are like the best candidates in the world, making it difficult to choose because they are both outstanding. If Trump is elected president, many very capable businessmen would want to join this government and do everything they can to help him, but they would not become government members. He believes Trump (if elected) will not encounter any issues in assembling a very capable team.
a16z founder: donated $2.5 million to Trump's campaign organization.
According to the latest documents submitted to the U.S. Federal Election Commission, a16z founders and venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz each donated $2.5 million to a super PAC supporting Trump. The two announced their support for Trump in July. Andreessen also made an additional donation of $844,600 to Trump's campaign team and the Republican Party, which is the limit set by the federal government.
Billionaire Tim Draper: Betting on both sides, with donation amounts being similar.
Billionaire and U.S. venture capitalist Tim Draper previously clarified: 'I have donated to both Harris's and Trump's campaign teams, and the amounts are roughly equal, allowing my wife and me to meet both candidates and make a more informed decision. Both candidates have the right starting points, and while they will set different paths for America, I am optimistic that either path will be a positive step. I support both candidates.'
Overall, supporters in the crypto industry are more inclined to back Trump, while those from traditional venture capital firms lean towards betting on both sides or supporting Harris.
Market viewpoint: Most believe Trump's victory would benefit crypto, while a minority think the ultimate winner will promote crypto development.
Overall, most research institutions and related organizations are optimistic about the development of the crypto market after Trump's rise. A small number believe that whether it's Trump or Harris, both will promote further development of the crypto industry after taking office; but an even smaller group believes that Trump's victory may lead to a downturn in the crypto market.
Traditional institutions: optimistic about the crypto market after Trump's ascendance.
A research report from Citibank stated that in the upcoming U.S. election, a comprehensive Republican victory would be the most favorable outcome for Coinbase and the broader crypto market, while a Harris victory and a split Congress could lead to increased uncertainty in the digital asset industry.
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that Bitcoin is showing strong upward momentum and may approach its historical high of $73,800 before the U.S. election. The potential price increase is driven by various factors, including the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and the rising odds of a Trump victory. Current data shows that Trump's winning odds are 56.3%, and the probability of a comprehensive Republican victory is 39%, which could create favorable conditions for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Additionally, the number of open contracts for $80,000 call options in the Bitcoin options market has also recently increased, indicating that institutional investors are optimistic about Bitcoin's mid-term upward potential.
BNP Paribas stated in a report that the outcome of the U.S. election early next month will determine the near-term outlook for the dollar. If Republican candidate Trump becomes president and the Republicans control Congress, it will be the most favorable outcome for the dollar.
Crypto enthusiasts: Trump will drive Bitcoin prices to $100,000.
Jeff Park, head of Alpha Strategy at crypto asset management firm Bitwise, predicts that if Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November, Bitcoin's price could rise to $92,000. He stated that based on a chart plotting Bitcoin's price against Trump's winning odds on Polymarket, applying some 'merged arbitrage-style probability mathematics' indicates that Bitcoin's price is likely to soar post-Trump's election victory. Additionally, early Bitcoin investor Erik Finman claimed he believes Trump's victory could push Bitcoin prices to $100,000, stating, 'His policies will ignite the crypto market and drive significant growth across the board.'
Augustine Fan, head of SOFA.org, stated: 'As attention turns to the outcome of the U.S. election, the most favorable outcome for cryptocurrencies would be a Trump victory, along with a Republican sweep of the House and Senate, thereby making it possible for Trump-Vance supported digital asset reform plans to pass through Congress.' Jung added: 'If Trump's dominance continues and the Federal Reserve signals a more dovish stance, we could see new momentum for Bitcoin in the weeks following these events.'
Alex Svanevik, CEO of blockchain analytics firm Nansen, argues that a primary condition for the largest bull market in history in 2025 is Trump's victory in the presidential election.
Neutral viewpoint: Whoever is elected will lead to economic risks and market downturns.
Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson stated that while some believe a Trump victory would be a negative for economic growth and the stock market, a Harris win could lead to disappointment on Wall Street. Polls indicate a 50% chance of this scenario occurring. However, Wilson pointed out the risk of a market downturn if Trump wins.
Analysts at trading and financial services firm Presto indicated that the U.S. election could trigger a collapse in the bond market, affecting other assets like Bitcoin. Jones stated that in the current risk environment, he is optimistic about Bitcoin, gold, commodities, and Nasdaq stocks. Analysts believe that both Republican candidate Trump and Democrat Harris have promised 'fiscal extravagance', leading to rising government debt levels and increasing the risk of a bond market collapse. Furthermore, the pending (2024 Bitcoin Bill) awaiting congressional approval could help stabilize U.S. debt and even stabilize the global financial system.
Neutral viewpoint: Whoever wins will benefit the crypto industry.
Haseeb Qureshi, managing partner at crypto venture fund Dragonfly Capital, stated, 'Regardless of who wins, the post-election environment should be favorable for potential crypto IPOs.' He mentioned that while Trump may push the SEC to adopt a more supportive stance on cryptocurrencies, Harris might 'replace Gensler with her own choice, which should lead to a more lenient crypto regulatory environment in the U.S.'
David Lawant, head of research at crypto market maker FalconX, stated, 'I think the market consensus is that regardless of the election outcome, Bitcoin could perform well. Our analysis shows that market options activity around the upcoming elections exhibits a clear bullish bias.' Republican candidate and former President Trump openly supports cryptocurrencies, to the extent that Bitcoin is seen as a so-called 'Trump trade.' His Democratic opponent, current Vice President Harris, has promised to support a regulatory framework for the industry, contrasting with the Biden administration's crackdown on it. Non-political factors, such as potential further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, are viewed as fueling optimism.
Mick Mulvaney, who served as acting Chief of Staff in Trump’s White House, stated that cryptocurrency is an industry that 'breaks the U.S. political mold' because it appeals to both Democrats and Republicans.
Opposing viewpoint: Harris will hinder more crypto ETF applications.
Two ETF experts stated that if Democratic presidential candidate Harris wins in the November election, XRP and SOL ETF applications may not yield results. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated, 'If Harris wins, it won’t be approved, no matter who the issuer is.' Some industry experts believe that when asset management giant BlackRock entered the competition to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, it significantly increased the chances of SEC approval—though it is still unclear how much influence BlackRock actually had.
Balchunas stated that if former President Trump wins the election, there will be a 'considerable opportunity' for more cryptocurrency ETFs to emerge, regardless of whether BlackRock joins Bitwise, VanEck, and others seeking to expand crypto ETFs beyond BTC and ETH.
Opposing viewpoint: The Trump trade presents obstacles for cryptocurrencies, cooling Bitcoin's upward trend.
As Trump leads Harris in prediction markets, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar have recently surged. Investors are curbing bets on loose monetary policy, as a Trump victory would likely implement growth measures for an already strong U.S. economy. With the financial environment tightening, Bitcoin has seen its first weekly decline in three weeks.
IG Australia's market analyst stated that a stock market sell-off, a rising dollar, and increasing yields all indicate a tightening financial environment, which is not good for cryptocurrencies. Some may point out that the financial environment has been loose from the start, but the speed of tightening is more critical. The co-founder of digital asset derivatives trading liquidity provider Orbit Markets stated that if Trump wins, it could lead to higher U.S. Treasury yields, ultimately negatively affecting risk assets. However, the expected softening of the Trump administration's approach to crypto regulation should still be a more significant factor.
Conclusion: Bitcoin may pull back before surging ahead of the election.
Currently, the call for a Trump victory is high. Aside from the crypto industry's eager anticipation, the traditional financial market is also 'feeling the warmth'—according to Barclays Bank, European stock markets have already priced in the possibility of a Trump victory. The company stated that since early spring of this year, a basket of European exporters, particularly those most affected by tariffs, has underperformed the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 index by 15%, indicating that to some extent, European stock markets have priced in a Trump victory.
Data from Polymarket, the 'crypto barometer', also supports this possibility, with users Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie collectively betting $30 million that Trump will win the 2024 presidential election; another Polymarket user, zxgngl, recently placed a bet of over $5 million on Trump's victory. Analysts suggest that the inflow of over $35 million in bets may have contributed to Trump's recent surge in winning odds.
Despite venture capitalist and Polymarket seed round investor Alex Marinier stating that it is entirely possible that 'some big players are making large bets to sway the market'; the prediction market Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour recently argued, using comparable data from Kalshi, that these results are accurate rather than manipulated. He stated, 'Harris's median bet is higher than Trump's,' with Harris's median bet at $85 and Trump's at $58. An increasing number of people are betting on Trump's victory, and the 20-point lead reflected on Polymarket approximately corresponds to that number. Based on the current total betting amount of over $2.4 billion on Polymarket, Trump’s winning odds may have been clearly demonstrated in that data.
Thanks to a series of crypto-friendly statements made by Trump earlier, combined with the gradual spread of various positive news before the election, it may drive the crypto market, including Bitcoin, to experience a temporary pullback before surging again.
