On the evening of October 21st, East Eighth District time, Bitcoin broke upward and officially broke through the 69,000 mark, reaching a maximum of 69,500 US dollars. Bitcoin was basically sideways throughout the weekend and lacked liquidity. Why did it suddenly appear during the U.S. trading time on Sunday? The rise, is this rise driven by futures or caused by spot purchases?
Recently, there have been frequent good news for altcoins. Starting from $APE, to $DYDX and $SUSHI, after the good news was issued, many altcoins experienced an increase of more than 20%. The altcoins at the bottom gradually started to move. The bull market altcoin engine in October last year Can the oracle sector still lead Shanzhai out of a bull market this time? Is the bull market really coming back this time? Take a look at what traders are saying from all angles.
Source: Blockbeats
technical analysis school
@leon_li2
Source: Blockbeats
Judging from the K-line chart, the price of Bitcoin seems to have broken through the downward trend line for most of the year. It seems to be hitting new highs every day, but the trading volume of new highs has shrunk significantly. On the other hand, Ethereum has broken through the previous high. But the real pressure range of 2,800 has just arrived. Yesterday's increase in Ethereum has brought high market sentiment. For the first time, the contract price has been higher than the spot price. Therefore, it is believed that the bullish market is in its final stage and the building will collapse at any time.
Many people compare the current market situation to October 23 and believe that the weekly MACD golden cross and the weekly K Dayang line broke through the previous high. However, I think the current market sentiment is completely different from the market sentiment at that time. It was consistent at that time. It is bearish in nature and is now unanimously bullish. I don’t think the MACD golden cross here has any practical significance. After all, it can die immediately after the golden cross. Which one is right and which one is wrong? Let’s see whether it will be repeated this week. In 2023, the positive line continued to reach new highs.
As for when I will stop shorting, it will probably be after Ethereum effectively breaks through 2,820 after the consolidation. I am not currently shorting the position, I am looking for entry opportunities to short on the right side.
@Crypto_Painter_X
From the perspective of the ASR-VC 4-hour channel, the current price behavior is somewhat similar to the pattern at the end of September, continuing to operate near the average pressure zone. It may be accumulating momentum or exhausting kinetic energy. From the perspective of spot premium, Look, this is a bit like the market situation in early June. It is a bullish trend under a long-term negative premium. The key price for determining whether the channel has fully turned into a bullish trend is 71,000. If it breaks through the average pressure zone strongly, the first target level may be near the overbought line. Currently, Around 77,500.
Source: Blockbeats
@Patrade_Buer
From a weekly perspective, the rising market continues here, and bsl is currently waiting to be plundered. This rising market must hit a new high. My personal goal is to look at the beginning of 9. It is still within the range (the fvg gap in the shock range will generally be filled. ), pay attention to see if there are wfvg opportunities, which is around $64,500.
Source: Blockbeats
Looking at the daily line, it is continuing to fluctuate and rise, mainly waiting for bsl to be plundered. If there is a chance for Bitcoin to pull back, it will probably be around 645, so you must buy it. If there aren't many trading opportunities for Bitcoin, then I'll look for copycat trading opportunities.
Source: Blockbeats
At the hourly level, the price here is fluctuating and rising, constantly generating new highs. If the counterattack does not break ob, you can go short and long during the day. If it falls below ob, you can look forward to the buying opportunity of the counterattack.
Source: Blockbeats
@CryptosLaowai
Source: Blockbeats
First of all, it is believed that the downward trend line of this round of big cycle has been broken through, and the step back has been successful, forming a bearish rising wedge at the small level. It is believed that it will weaken in the short term, and the downward trend line of the big cycle has been broken down, and this round of business war has passed. The position of the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement is roughly around US$67,000, forming a large-scale rising wedge. The first target of this round of rise is still around US$72,000.
Data analysis school
@Kbeast.eth
Source: Blockbeats
According to the value area of Bitcoin that has fluctuated widely in the past six months, yesterday’s upward breakthrough did not break through the VAH in the past six months. In addition, the thickest distribution, the largest supply area, is at 70,900. If it can continue to rise, there will be no upward auction. Rejection, next target on the upside is 70,900.
Source: Blockbeats
From the perspective of annual VWAP, there has been a potential breakthrough and there is no obvious downward drive but a reversal that cannot be broken. Therefore, in the short term, it is believed that there will continue to be an upward breakthrough. According to the buyer's liquidity depth map and liquidation heat map, the trend is towards A key level for the next pullback is probably $65,000-$67,000.
Source: Blockbeats
Observing the auction format during the day, it is obvious that the structure is upward auction. It is also in line with the view of continuing to break upward, so we can continue to be bullish.
@LinChen91162689
Source: Blockbeats
@Crypto_Painter_X
From a data perspective, Spot: Aggregated spot prices maintained a slight sell-off on Sunday night, but began to increase in volume on Monday morning, and the increase was carried out in two phases; Futures: Aggregated futures first increased from Sunday night to Monday morning. Continuous small sales occurred. During the first period of the spot rally, they were still flat longs and shorts, but the second time they completely broke through 69,000 and then turned long; it seems that the shorts first moved to the left based on the idea that 69,000 may be a false breakthrough. The market was then pulled up by strong spot buying to stop the loss; it is worth noting that Coinbase changed its previous continuous shipment status from Sunday, and began to continue small purchases, which is a relatively big change; but the currency Except for the three significant volume increases in Ann Futures, which saw significant buying, the rest of the time was spent on small-amount long/short positions; in summary, spot buying began to appear! Although the volume is not very large, if the supply of futures take-profit selling orders can be sustained, the price can stabilize at 69,000;
Source: Blockbeats
From the perspective of USDT market share, USDT market share has slightly fallen below the rising trend line for half a year on a weekly basis. If this is really a confirmatory break, it represents the entry of idle funds, which is more likely to happen. The performance is that Bitcoin’s dominance rate has temporarily peaked, and counterfeit and small-market capitalization projects will gain full liquidity in the next 2-3 weeks.
Source: Blockbeats
From the perspective of total futures positions, the total number of Bitcoin futures positions has been at the US$40 billion mark for three consecutive days. While positions remain high, the price has increased by US$1,500, indicating that there is a small amount of spot funds. Enter the market; but compared to Bitcoin’s previous positions when it fluctuated between 68,000 and 69,000, the current total positions are 2.5 billion US dollars more. For spot bulls, although the mood is very good, there has never been a large amount of selling pressure, so , for the current market, spot will not become a source of potential risks. The extra 2.5 billion positions may be the source of the next "more to kill more" and the large-scale liquidation of high-level long positions. In a real bull market, every liquidation of a large number of leveraged longs is a necessary condition for the next period of rise. In a market with high futures weight, shorts are the source of funds for the rise, and longs are all a burden.
general economic analysis
@Phyrex_Ni
The data of Bitcoin spot ETF still performed well last Friday. Although it has the same trend of decreasing purchasing power as Ethereum, we can still see a large amount of funds concentrated in Bitcoin. On Friday, the spot ETF had a net inflow of 4,099 Bitcoins. , although it is the lowest data within the week, it is still much stronger than before.
BlackRock had a net increase in holdings for five consecutive working days during the week, adding a total of 16,975 Bitcoins. Such single-week holdings data has almost not been seen since March. Fidelity has a net increase in holdings. 4,807 Bitcoins ranked second, followed again by ARK with 4,538 Bitcoins, and Bitwise in fourth place with 2,244 Bitcoins.
It is worth mentioning that Grayscale’s GBTC has a net increase of 963 Bitcoins in the past week. This does not include the increase in Mini ETF holdings, which is in sharp contrast to Ethereum. Even when liquidity is very tight, investors' limited funds are still concentrated in Bitcoin.
In the past week, the net purchasing power of twelve US ETFs was 31,119.43 Bitcoins, an increase of 685.34% compared to the previous week. This data also far exceeded that of Ethereum. Grayscale’s net selling increased from 1,103.36 Bitcoins two weeks ago. Bitcoin turned into a net inflow of 1,232.71 Bitcoins, and Grayscale is no longer synonymous with Bitcoin selling.
Source: Blockbeats
Other cryptocurrencies
@MaoShu_CN
The counterfeits did improve over the weekend, and meme coins showed a correction, but despite optimism, we still need to be vigilant. The oracle sector is rising. $API3 and $DIA mean that the activity on the chain has increased, which can be used as a signal of optimism for copycats. $APE rose in response after the pump was released in the morning of October 20th, East Eighth District time, with the highest increase exceeding 1 times, leading the Metaverse and NFT sectors to rise together. Overall, the current market narrative does not seem to have hot spots related to the Metaverse and NFT. These hot spots need to be treated with caution. It may be that copycats take the opportunity to become active and then ship. After all, in this cycle, the Metaverse and NFT sectors are the least popular. , is still optimistic about the activity of the oracle sector. The launch of copycats in the same period last year was also the first to set sail for the oracle sector. It is hoped that the market activity can be opened up again this time.
@0XEN
He believes that the market operates in mysterious ways. We all have the opportunity to find some currencies that may bring excess returns, or to go to zero after being promoted by other KOLs. For him, he will choose $GOAT and $GNON. , and he has bought the bottom of $GOAT, believing that $GOAT and $GNON will become key positions in the long-term trend going forward. If he is wrong, he becomes exit liquidity for others.
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
This article is reprinted with permission from: (Blockbeats)
Original author: CMed
