Currently, BTC's price is in a high volatility range with downward pressure.

Price Trend Forecast:

  1. Last night, as BTC approached $70,000, the price experienced a certain degree of pullback. Although there was a brief exchange of bullish and bearish forces, the selling pressure dominated based on trading volume and capital flow, suggesting that the price may further test the support level at $66,800. If this support level is breached, it could further approach the $65,000 range.

  2. Technical Indicators:

    • RSI: RSI is below 50 and gradually declining, indicating that the market is weak with significant selling pressure.

    • MACD: MACD shows that bearish momentum is dominant, currently in the negative territory.

    • EMA Indicator: The short-term EMA lines (7 EMA and 25 EMA) have crossed downwards, suggesting a possibility of further pullback in the short term.

  3. Open Positions and Volume: The contract open interest has increased, but the active selling volume slightly exceeds the active buying volume, reflecting a certain bearish sentiment in the market.

Trading Strategy:

  1. Short-Term Strategy:

    • Short-term Operation: Consider entering a long position lightly around $67,500, with a target price set in the $68,800 - $69,000 range and a stop loss at $66,800.

    • Bearish Defense: If the price continues to fall below $66,800, consider going short, targeting $65,000, with a stop loss at $67,500.

  2. Mid-Term Strategy:

    • Cautious Sentiment: Due to the rising panic index and significant fluctuations in net capital inflow data, mid-term investors are advised to wait until BTC price stabilizes above $69,000 before considering going long. Otherwise, patiently wait for the price to pull back to around $65,000 to prepare for a buying opportunity.

  3. Risk Control: The market is highly volatile, so it is recommended to manage positions reasonably and closely monitor changes in market sentiment and external macro factors, such as U.S. economic data, policy changes, etc., as these may impact BTC's trend.

Summary:

In the short term, BTC may fluctuate in the $66,800 - $68,800 range, but overall it appears weak. It is advised to take light long positions or wait for clearer breakout signals to avoid heavy operations in the current range.