Regarding price manipulation in the cryptocurrency world, is it possible to achieve it mathematically? (Thought experiment)

Assume that a person or entity can meet the following conditions:

1. Have sufficient idle funds (more than 1 billion U);

2. Able to trade at zero cost (extremely low or no transaction fees);

3. Able to obtain position information of a large number of users in real time;

Then follow the following strategy:

For example:

The current price is $100. Through big data calculation, the stop loss and liquidation price of all short orders in the futures market is estimated. It is found that the data peak is around $112, and there are $200 million short orders that will be passively closed (liquidated, stop loss);

Next, calculate the funds required to pull the price to $112.1 if spot purchase is used, set as X;

If X is greater than $200 million, then no operation will be performed. When X is much less than $200 million, start buying a large amount of spot and monitor in real time whether the potential total amount of funds for liquidation at $112 changes, and whether the amount of funds required to pull the price from the latest price to $112 increases significantly;

If there is no change, then continue to buy spot, and the process must be very fast until the price rises to $112;

At this time, immediately place an iceberg commissioned futures short order above $112, with a value equal to X. Since X is less than the potential amount of funds for liquidation (stop loss, liquidation) at this price, it can be ensured that this short order can be traded.

Subsequently, the price triggered the forced liquidation of futures short positions. The large amount of funds bought to close short positions pushed up the price and completely filled the previous iceberg order.

At this point, there is a spot with a value greater than X US dollars (because the price rose, the early chips were in a profitable state) and a short order that is exactly equal to X US dollars.

Therefore, a part of the spot can be sold to obtain profits, making the spot value completely equal to the short order, completing the hedging.

In this way, a cycle is completed. After that, there is no risk regardless of whether the price rises or falls, and the excess profit of the spot becomes the net profit.

The same operation can also be used for low-risk dumping and gaining profits. The main profit space comes from the difference between the cost of pulling/dumping and the potential explosion of the short and long amount.

Above.

I don’t know if this logic is reasonable, but I feel that it is really a sure win. As long as retail investors flock to set stop losses or liquidation, there will be arbitrage space!