On October 8, 2024, scroll announced the airdrop information. Source: https://scroll.io/blog/scr-token#scr-token-distribution
A total of 150m tokens will be airdropped, with 70m tokens in the first round and 80m to be distributed in the next year to year and a half. If calculated at a price of around 1.5, the project owner will probably give less than $100 million in airdrops.
However, the number of scroll addresses is about 4.5 million: Information source: https://www.oklink.com/zh-hans/scroll.
Assuming that there are 1 million addresses that can get the airdrop, the number of addresses that can get the airdrop is actually very small. If we follow the rules of zk, only about 600,000 users will get the airdrop in the end, then the average airdrop reward per person is only $166. This is far from the glory of the airdrop track.
1: The rise and fall of the airdrop track
1: uniswap
Uni Token Economics
The rules of the first airdrop project Uniswap are: as long as you have traded, you can get 400uni, if you have done LP, you can get 800uni, if you calculate according to the airdrop price of 4 dollars, you can get 1600u reward as long as you interact once. Moreover, the airdrop ratio is 60%. The airdrop package is worth 450 million US dollars.
2：1inch
Later, the 1inch airdrop rule was changed to require more than 4 interactions. Many people tried to use the same rules as uni, and the airdrop track was not clear at the time, so the users who got it also earned it in a confused way, until a turning point: DYDX
3：DYDX
dydx airdrop rules
The reason why DYDX was a turning point in the airdrop track was because a man named "Miner Lao Ma" made nearly 15 million US dollars on this project. At that time, the airdrop track had just become clear, and it was unexpected that the rule of DYDX was to give money as long as you deposit money, which also created a group of people who bet on this project.
4: First time back
After DYDX, the airdrop track officially began, and a large number of DAPPs with airdrop expectations emerged, such as Opensea, Element, Beta finance, Opyn, Zapper, and even Little Fox Wallet and other projects. The above are all projects that I have been counter-emptied from. This is the first time that the mass airdrop movement has been counter-emptied, until some people began to give up.
This period was also the craziest time for me. I operated more than 300 of each of the projects mentioned above. It was also the first time I accepted other people’s funds to start airdrops. My belief at that time was only "If you can’t get enough, try to get as much as you can". I woke up every day and started to log in. My obsession with getting rich quickly turned into clicking the mouse. Of course, the final outcome was a mess. I also paid part of the client’s funds out of my own pocket.
After a period of silence, star projects that appeared in the airdrop track included ENS. As long as you bought a domain name, you would be given tokens, and the renewal time was related to the number of airdropped tokens. This was also a project with good returns until the rise of the ETH L2 track.
5: The rise of ETH L2
At that time, everyone was trying to swipe DAPP-type projects. Because there were too many later projects, it was impossible to swipe them all. Until OP broke the trend of protocol airdrops and also started airdrops in the public chain track.
op airdrop rules
After the OP airdrop, ARB also launched its airdrop within a year. These two projects are the ones where most people got results from the airdrops.
The ARB airdrop is the largest airdrop in history. The project gave out nearly $1.6 billion worth of gift packages, creating a large number of wealth stories. It was also the most relaxed rules ever by the project.
Due to the money-making effect of ARB, the market has realized that the public chain track is the real track for making big money, so everyone has focused their efforts on projects such as Zksync and Stark net, as well as linea L0.
6: Turning point of decline
Stark still created a number of wealth stories, but the rules began to become stricter, until more than 90% of people in zk and L0 were counter-moneyed, and everyone began to realize the decline of the airdrop track, until the announcement of scroll's airdrop in the past few days.
2. Expectation management and market psychology of airdrop track
If you have experienced airdrops since uni until today, you can experience that users’ expectations are constantly increasing before several turning points. Due to various stories of getting rich quickly, users will also have the psychological expectation of "I will be the next one", and some project parties also know that I need to use airdrop expectations to get users involved.
The reason why zk was criticized so badly is actually because the project party did not meet the expectations of users, or greatly disappointed users, because his projects in the same level track all gave gift packages of nearly 10 billion yuan, and zk's results were far from what users expected.
The reason why no one criticizes scroll even though it gives so little and the price is so low is that everyone’s expectations have been managed by zk, and no one thinks that airdrops are still a way to get rich quickly.
The market has also experienced a decline from the two high points of DYDX and ARB, but from the user results, when a large number of people rushed up, it was the peak of the market, that is, "when more people or even everyone is willing to take a certain risk, the return of taking this risk is declining." This is why the results of zk are so poor, because there are too many people, everyone's expectations are very consistent, and the strategies are very similar.
Until now, the market has remained calm since the release of scroll’s airdrop.
The market has experienced the cycle of hope-enthusiasm-disillusionment-hope rekindled-enthusiasm again-disillusionment again since uni, and the project has also experienced the cycle of small profit-big profit-reversal-small profit again. The market is like a pendulum, as Howard Marks said, from fear to greed, and then back to fear. The current stage is a mess after the frenzy.
3. Two-way fatigue and exploitation of users and project owners
Starting from uni, I actually wanted users to try one of my functions, but now the real purpose of many users to participate in the project is to make money. It is not wrong for the project party to want traffic data, but as more and more people know the rules of the game, this actually goes against the original purpose of the project party to airdrop to users.
As more and more projects airdrop, users are getting smarter, using less cost to reach the minimum airdrop rules of the project party, pursuing the utilization rate of funds, and changing from "trying new things" to "bulk wool". As long as there is money to be made, there will be no shortage of users. In order to maximize profits, users have also begun to set up studios to batch register accounts, and the project party has also used this to manage user expectations.
What users want is to make money, while what project owners want is data. I don’t believe that project owners don’t know that there are so many users who are trying to get them to do something. They just use this to create beautiful data. However, as more and more users come in, project owners begin to get rid of them. After getting the good-looking data, they no longer care about the users’ later results.
In the end, both users and project owners know what each other is thinking and wants, which leads to a contradiction and game. Project owners want real user data but don't want to pay the price and abandon the users after using them. Users, on the other hand, want airdrops and don't care about the actual project. They will withdraw their investment and leave immediately after the airdrop is released.
I believe there are no fools in the market. Project owners and users should not deceive themselves. Isn’t the horrible appearance of the data after the project airdrop a satire on the project?
If there is no airdrop expectation for the so-called ETH L2 king, it will be a ghost chain that no one uses. The so-called public chain city will be nothing more than a ghost town after the airdrop. Users and project parties come for profit and leave for profit.
4. Some of my own airdrop experiences
I have been getting airdrops since uni, all the way to dydx. Although I didn’t make a big profit, I always got some. After OP issued its coins, I realized that ARB would definitely issue them, and the rules must be similar. In the end, my prediction was correct, but my position was not enough, and I missed a good opportunity. Later, I bet on stark and zk. My logic at the time was that I felt that each transaction of stark would take about 20 minutes, and it would be impossible for it to issue coins before zk. Therefore, I didn’t invest much in stark and only got a 7-digit profit.
Due to my heavy investment in zk and the pursuit of extreme capital utilization, the account that finally received the airdrop was only about 10%. In short, I learned a lot from my own airdrop experience, from the initial single-handed fight to the later teamwork, large-scale management, and the experience of market effectiveness, which made me grow a lot.
Most importantly, I paid the price for my prejudice. I insisted on pursuing the "optimal" strategy, insisting on the ultimate utilization of funds, and achieving the results I wanted at the lowest cost. Although the final result was not good, in the process I gained a lot of coordination and management skills for a large project.
Although I am not optimistic about scroll, I still have accounts with more than 4 digits, and I am not just doing interactions. I can see that the trend of airdrops has shifted from pow to pos, so if I still use the previous set of rules to operate, there will probably not be a good result.
5. Some future directions and thoughts
It can be seen that the current airdrop projects have basically shifted from pow to pos, and from interaction to staking, but staking means capital utilization. In the current web3 market, whether the same funds can get a better return, and whether it is cost-effective to use this money on airdrops, these are questions that everyone needs to think about.
The essence of staking to obtain airdrops is actually no different from financial management. Are you willing to use your funds to make financial management with opaque returns and a certain probability of project security risks? In terms of return on investment, this is also a question you need to think about. Only you can be 100% responsible for your own money.
What is the purpose of participating in airdrops? To make money, so is there a way to make money other than airdrops? I believe there must be, but what prevents us from making money in other tracks is not ability, but prejudice and path dependence. I have paid countless prices for my prejudice. When the inscription bull market was the most profitable, I still spent a lot of attention on airdrops. And because I have made money based on my previous cognition, and I have made a lot of money, I have a certain dependence on the path to make money.
So next, whether you are an individual or a studio owner, you need to examine yourself carefully to see if prejudice and path dependence are hindering your opportunities to make money in other fields?
My own thinking is that as long as it is a money-making track, I will participate. My goal is to make money, not to stick to one track to the end, so I have a trial attitude towards any new things, and I will go back to study any money-making track.
So after the airdrop, I still entered the BTC ecosystem, meme and other tracks. Their wealth effect is no less than that of the airdrop track. My team got 10% of the chips of Pipe during the Inscription bull market last year. If calculated according to the high point, it is worth about 15 million US dollars. At the same time, I made a profit of 2 million US dollars from the Mubi project. If I am still immersed in the airdrop track, I will not see these opportunities. Only by keeping open enough can we see new opportunities. I believe that there must be opportunities to make money in other tracks, but they may not be the airdrop track.
Regarding the future, I don’t want to prove that I am right or have any foresight, nor do I want to pay the price for my prejudice again. I will keep studying those profitable tracks, tracks that can make money, stay open to new things, give up the so-called "airdrop god" title, and give up the values behind the sense of security that I once made money with. I will embrace uncertainty, keep learning, and keep improving. I believe there will be a place for me in the market.
