This week, Bitcoin is rising, while other currencies are correcting, and various voices are beginning to appear in the market. The market in the past six months has made retail investors develop a habit of rebounding and falling, which is the terrible thing about the main force. However, this rebound and fall are completely different from the bear market. In the bear market, the rebound and fall, each decline is breaking the support and breaking the new low, and the high point of each rebound has not broken the previous high. This is the normal trend of the bull market. Let's take a look at the trend of Bitcoin in the past six months.
The normal falling channel appears in the bear market. The rebound of the longs in the channel shrinks, and the falling shorts increase in volume, and the final breakthrough direction is a downward breakthrough. This is one of the reasons why many people are bearish here, because they only see the appearance. The "slightly downward sloping parallel channel" appears in the bull market. The shorts in the channel fall and shrink, and the longs rebound from shrinking to increasing in volume, and the final breakthrough direction is an upward breakthrough. Look at the red arrow in the above picture. The high and low points of the previous trend of the "slightly downward sloping parallel channel" are indeed decreasing, but the magnitude of the decrease is very small, which is very different from the gradual downward movement of the high and low points in the bear market. Compare the trend of the bear market to know. After August 5, the trend has changed. As shown by the green arrow in the figure, the high point began to break the previous high point, the price began to stop breaking the new low, and the low point was gradually raised. This is a very important change, which indicates that the volatile market is about to end and the market is about to break upward.
Let's take a look at MACD. As a moving average swing indicator, MACD has lags and cannot be used as the main basis for trading, but can only be used as an auxiliary. MACD is close to the zero axis and is about to form a golden cross. In the early stage of the bull market, MACD may fall below the zero axis, but after entering the mid-term of the bull market, MACD will basically not fall below the zero axis, but it will be too late to wait until the golden cross before operating. The above basis is why it is said that Bitcoin will break through 70,000 US dollars in October. Learning trading technology is not used to predict the market, but to identify the next direction of the market in advance through the trend of the market and take action in advance. The competition between masters is who finds the opportunity first and who has the advantage.
