Author: 1mpal
Compiled by: TechFlow
Just a week ago, the Web3 gaming space seemed barren. Most games were struggling to gain traction for token listings, while meme coins were grabbing all the attention. But today, the landscape has changed dramatically. The success of Off The Grid (@playoffthegrid) has breathed new life into the space, sparking excitement and optimism, in stark contrast to Limit Break’s high-profile Super Bowl ad.
Of course, fun is subjective, so I won't be rating the game here. However, my Web3-savvy friends generally agreed that the game was "more fun than 99% of Web3 games." Interestingly, they all added, "I play it because it's really engaging, but I don't expect any significant financial gain from it.”
One successful game can shake up the entire market. There won't be another game like OTG anytime soon, and no other Web3 game can currently match it in terms of marketing or gameplay performance. While it's too early to predict OTG's ultimate success or failure, its impact is already beginning to be felt. Its influence will undoubtedly continue to shape the Web3 gaming landscape for some time to come.
1. Separation of games and tokens
OTG has sold tokens and nodes, but they are not yet fully operational. If OTG ultimately fails, no one will blame the blockchain or the token. On the contrary, if OTG succeeds, it may not be directly related to the performance of the GUN token. It remains to be seen whether the GUN token will perform well. It is challenging for a game to rely mainly on tokens as a revenue model. It may be more appropriate to compare the performance of future tokens with cases like Mythology games.
Let's recall. In MMORPGs like (Ultima Online), (World of Warcraft) or (RuneScape) (or (Lineage)), how did we make money? Some people collected in-game materials, some people did market arbitrage based on patch notes, and some people made profits by making top-level equipment and helping other players. The key is that players created all the supply in these systems. This is different from today's practice where developers strictly control the supply of items. The core of a sustainable economic ecosystem has always been to achieve monetization through the balance of supply and demand in the game. The peer-to-peer ecosystem organized by OTG today also lacks developer control over supply.
Some people may think that now is the best time for OTG to list its token, but this view is too biased towards Web3. Just as Web1 evolved into Web2, the goal of Web3 games is to solve the problems of Web2 games and evolve further. Why do people play OTG? Is it for GUN Token? Or to get NFT skins? At present, it is more because they want to play games with well-known anchors like Ninja and win the game. This shows that economic factors are relatively weak in the motivation of games.
In the long run, for the sustainable development of OTG, it is wiser to continuously reinvest part of the revenue into the game rather than repurchase tokens. There are also rewards for running nodes, so there is no need for token repurchase, especially when the main target users of the game have always been Web2 players. Games should not easily turn to Web3 considerations. Regardless of the performance of GUN Token, the more successful OTG is, the greater the possibility that the AVAX chain will be activated, making AVAX the only valid bet on OTG. For OTG players, Token is just another payment method.
2. Mass Marketing and Timing
According to the founder of Web3 Games, it is estimated that OTG spends at least $1 million per day on marketing, especially to attract top streamers like Ninja and Shroud. In the short term, the most effective marketing strategy is to maximize exposure. Although many Web3 institutions may tell you that Web2 marketing methods are ineffective, their most common method is actually to have a group of well-known influencers flood social media with the same keywords.
For comparison, the top Twitch and YouTube creators in the Korean market made around $30,000 per live stream and video upload in 2021. As their influence and costs have increased, top creators may now charge closer to $40,000 to $50,000. The top creators mentioned have 1 million to 2 million subscribers, and global creators demand even more.
While OTG is the only Web3 game that can be called AAA in scale (Star Atlas aside), it was produced with a relatively low budget compared to typical AAA games. According to Delphi research, OTG's development costs are about one-twentieth of those of games like GTA 6. Even so, their efficient use of their marketing budget has been recognized, and their performance has increased the value of AVAX Token by more than 10%. Given AVAX's high fully diluted valuation and market cap, it is not surprising that AVAX has invested heavily in marketing support.
(Please refer to the chart)
What many people don’t notice is that the peak user base of a game usually occurs at the beginning of its release, and game projects rarely re-reach this peak. Ironically, many Web3 games fail to effectively increase their tokens and player base at launch, and long initial promotion campaigns often lead to wasted resources. In the future, we may see more hidden projects that devote all their resources at launch.
3. The rise of streaming and influencers
(Image source)
Remember when OTG first released its trailer? Despite the excitement in the Web3 space, the response from the YouTube community was less than enthusiastic. People were skeptical of the battle royale genre (as looter shooters were popular at the time), criticized the trailer’s low frame rate, and grew tired of repeatedly sharing Dr Disrespect’s gameplay demo.
So what was the result of this massive marketing push? Millions of players tried the game, more than 2 million created accounts and wallets, and more than 3 million transactions were made. In addition to the high quality of the game itself, this moment proved the huge influence of celebrity streamers in terms of credibility and mobilization ability. Mainstream players valued trust in the messenger more than trust in the blockchain or the game itself.
When some YouTuber shows a game trailer and says “This game looks fun!”, it gets some attention. But when top influencers live stream and play the game and interact with their audience, the impact is much greater. Due to the high system requirements and the need for organized promotion, many Web3 chain players have difficulty getting access to this game.
The long-term sustainability of OTG depends on whether the streamers who promote it can become spontaneous players. In addition, considering the widespread cheating in shooters, the view that AAA-level play-and-earn games are unsustainable cannot be ignored. Although the road ahead is difficult, I sincerely hope that OTG can succeed, which is beneficial to the entire industry. It is not market rumors that change the gaming ecosystem, but unique success.
While it’s too early to tell whether Off the Grid is a success, it certainly has breathed new life into the market.
Effectiveness of traditional marketing: OTG proves that traditional game marketing can also work in the Web3 field.
Play for fun, not profit: Players’ motivation for playing OTG is not to make money, and this shift could have an impact on the market.
Although OTG cannot be considered a successful game yet, its marketing strategy has been successful. It is worth noting that the game's strategy perfectly matches the focus of the current game market. By shifting the motivation of the game from making money to entertainment - even if it means weakening the Web3 element - it solves the doubts caused by the weakness of Web3 game tokens.
Not every game can or should follow OTG’s model. There will still be airdrops, free NFT whitelist promotions, and a need for social interaction. The focus on token games will also continue. However, there is no doubt that OTG’s performance has planted the seeds of confidence for game projects that are currently in stealth development.
I remember DigiDaigaku flashing a QR code briefly during the Super Bowl and getting a lot of laughs. I'm still not sure if it was a successful marketing strategy, but I get why @gabrielleydon is now actively discussing the impact of OTG.
I’m glad to see this space re-energized and generating some lively discussion. Vador and Sparkc’s conversation, along with Keplr’s insights, was very interesting in conjunction with the current market narrative.
Will OTG completely change the market? At least, many players and developers have seen a new way forward.
