Author: Frank, PANews
Since the beginning of this bull market cycle, MEME coins, inscriptions, airdrops, etc. have continued to grab traffic. The once mainstream tokens failed to usher in the expected rise, and the airdrops of several star projects also disappointed the community because they were lower than expectations or the price of the coins fell.
On the other hand, MEME coin has gradually become an important indicator of the entire crypto industry from a niche segment. Why are mainstream coins no longer popular? Why are more and more mainstream institutions turning to MEME coin holdings? In the past year, what potential changes have occurred in the rise of MEME? Can this prosperity be sustained? With these questions, PANews studied and reflected on the development of MEME.
Compared with mainstream currencies, MEME has a greater wealth-creating effect
In the past year, the performance of mainstream coins in our impression has been basically unsatisfactory, and several long-awaited star airdrop projects have also failed one after another. In this context, the myth of MEME coins making people rich has been frequently reported. In comparison, is it really unprofitable to invest in mainstream value coins?
According to a report by KeyRock, the prices of most airdrop projects in 2024 collapsed within 15 days, and 88% of the tokens fell sharply within three months.
In order to make a comprehensive comparison, PANews counted the performance of some previously popular tokens in several categories, such as mainstream public chains, chain games, metaverse, inscriptions, airdrops, and old MEME coins from January 1, 2024 to October 15, 2024. From the data, among these token types, only the performance of old MEME coins and mainstream public chains has shown an upward trend this year, and both this year's popular airdrops and the popular inscriptions at the beginning of the year have an average decline of about 50%, and chain games and metaverse tracks have also fallen by 23% and 52% respectively.
It can be said that, except for a few popular public chains (such as SUI, TON, BNB), the performance of other mainstream tokens is not as good as Bitcoin. And this comparison does not include the emerging MEME, because these newly popular MEMEs themselves are "convincing people with their growth". Due to the low market value in the early stage, it is easy to create a hundred-fold or even a thousand-fold increase. It can be said that the main reason why MEME replaced mainstream coins is that the market performance is more attractive.
Narrative logic and threshold changes
For a long time, the narrative of mainstream projects seems to be its most important foundation. Starting from the earliest smart contracts of Ethereum, to the third-generation public chain of EOS, to the later Layer 2, cross-chain, metaverse, chain games, and now to re-staking, Bitcoin ecology (inscription rune parallel chain), social, artificial intelligence, etc. A major change is that the technology looks more and more high-end, and new terms and new gameplay emerge in an endless stream. These changes come from the crowding of mature tracks, which requires the creation of some new tracks to better achieve financing. On the other hand, the design of airdrops becoming points-based gameplay, inscriptions, and writing codes, which have increasingly high thresholds, also dazzled retail investors and made them confused, hindering the joining of more new users.
But MEME's narrative is completely different. It is a simple narrative, a picture, a noun, a symbol, and it gathers consensus based on a cultural gene that everyone understands. People don't need to understand the logic behind the technology, nor do they need to go to great lengths to investigate whether the project has really achieved those technological innovations.
On the other hand, with the rise of Solana, the code vulnerabilities such as honeypots, Pixiu, and additional issuance that were rampant on Ethereum have been greatly reduced, which undoubtedly reduces the difficulty for ordinary users to enter MEME. Since the beginning of this year, more and more tools have appeared in the MEME track, which has further improved the MEME experience. For example, Dexscreener, Birdeye and other market viewing tools have successively supported token charts of more chains.
The popularity of one-click coin issuance platforms such as Pump.fun has made the greatest contribution to MEME. As such tools become mainstream, MEME coins seem to have completely solved the problems caused by code vulnerabilities, and MEME's unique characteristics such as cultural attributes, funds, and communities can play a more direct role.
The above changes reflect two trends in the crypto community, like the two ends of a scale. On one end, new projects are becoming more and more complex and the threshold for participation is getting higher and higher. On the other end, MEME coin is making the threshold lower and lower with minimalism and professional division of labor.
In a market with limited on-site funds and users, the balance is now tilted towards MEME.
The public chooses, and capital follows
As retail investors are keen on MEME coins, institutional capital seems to have begun to shift resources. According to Lookonchain monitoring, Wintermute has been accumulating NEIRO (Neiro on Ethereum) since September 6, and has accumulated 62.45 million NEIRO (US$7.39 million), accounting for 6.25% of the total supply. NEIRO is one of the largest Meme coins held by Wintermute. According to The Data Nerd on October 11, in addition to Wintermute, there are three market makers (MM) and a venture capital company holding $NEIRO_ETH tokens.
According to data provided by @thedefiedge, as of October 15, Wintermute held approximately $10.52 million worth of PEPECOIN, which is the third largest token in its holdings, and held $3.48 million worth of NEIRO. It has become the market maker with the largest publicly known holdings. In addition, Jump Trading also holds $1.2 million worth of SHIB.
Gotbit, which was recently prosecuted by the US federal prosecutor, was also pointed out to be a market maker of Neiro. In addition, Beercoin, WaterCoin, Hamster Kombat and other MEME project parties also urgently clarified or distanced themselves from Gotbit after the incident. It is not difficult to see from these news that professional market makers participating in the market of MEME tokens has become a common thing.
Moreover, according to PANews's analysis of popular MEME coins, in order to avoid being tracked by on-chain hunters, market makers will choose to manipulate the MEME market through multiple links such as decentralized wallets, batch purchases, asset transfers, and hidden shipments. These operations also make the real institutional holding ratio in MEME a mystery.
Thinking from the perspective of capital, it is not difficult to find the motivation. In mainstream value project investment, VC not only has to invest a large amount of capital at one time, but also needs to wait for the project party to develop and operate for a long time. After attracting users through the design of airdrops, points and other gameplay, it is often necessary to lock up for a long time before cashing out. Investing in MEME coins is relatively simple. Choose targets that have been tested by the market, directly hold tokens without a lock-up period, and can also realize trading due to the higher capital level. It can be cashed out at any time and has a higher return. From various factors, the current MEME coin market is more in line with the interests of capital.
From Ansem to Murad, each version has its own god
In recent times, Murad has become a new generation myth of MEME due to his speech on "Memecoin Super Cycle" and his holdings of more than 24 million US dollars in MEME coins. The previous MEME master Ansem seems to be facing doubts. In addition to the results of these advanced MEME players, we may be able to see some significant changes in the style of MEME players.
Ansem first started out with WIF tokens. His overall style is more like "diamond hands", that is, buying with a small amount of principal after ambushing in the early stage, and selling when the price reaches a high point. This style was quite popular among previous MEME players. Players focused a lot of energy on finding potential MEME coins and strive to buy them at the earliest stage of the token. But this method undoubtedly has a huge probability of error. Once it encounters a Pixiu disk or malicious manipulation by the issuer, it will cause a lot of losses. Ansem is obviously a leader in this style in the early stage. He can always find those potential tokens in the early stage and realize profits.
Murad's success represents another style of operation becoming mainstream. According to Murad, his reference standards for MEME coins are as follows: mid-market value coins between $5 million and $200 million; located in Solana and Ethereum; at least six months of history. Judging from these standards, Murad prefers to look for relatively mature tokens rather than expecting to buy in at the earliest stage. In addition, compared to Ansem's frequent buying and selling, Murad's trading frequency is much lower, and many tokens are held for months. This investment style is more like the previous investment method of institutions in mainstream value coins.
MEME Season: Decline or New Opportunity?
From the perspective of the entire industry, mainstream value projects are still the main force of this industry and are also the investment targets that capital and institutions recognize more. Therefore, many people believe that the rise of MEME coins will further damage the values of the crypto world. If you can get a lot of wealth just by manipulating prices and maintaining the community, how many people will be willing to work hard to innovate technology and promote changes in the entire industry and even the Web2 world in the future?
This is indeed a concern that deserves attention. Looking back at the MEME coins since they became famous, we rarely hear about the project owners or communities of these tokens launching any innovative technical solutions and governance templates for the entire crypto market. On the contrary, with the popularity of MEME, on-chain hackers, sandwich attackers, and MEME packaging teams have made a lot of money. Whether the income level of retail investors has really been improved remains to be discussed.
However, if we separate cryptocurrency from blockchain technology, technology is technology, and MEME coin represents the development trend of cryptocurrency as an asset attribute. Behind the mainstream value coins, those projects with real technological innovation will still be recognized by capital and the market. What MEME coin eliminates are just some fake project coins in the guise of technology. As Murad said, ordinary investors gradually realize that the token itself is the product, not the software. He believes that the current crypto industry is still an industry that focuses on asset production, and technology is just its subsidiary.
Therefore, the trend of MEME becoming mainstream seems to be a fact. For speculative players, profit-making is a natural goal. The decline of mainstream value coins has brought challenges to the previous VC value system. It is time to reflect and change to regain their own stage.
