The market's major correction in early October has left some investors doubtful and worried that October, which has historically maintained an upward trend, may be "different" this time. As a result, history always seems to prove "the same this time."
After jumping to a peak of $66,000 in late September, Bitcoin did not stop there. Instead, it experienced a thrilling retracement and plummeted to the bottom of $59,000. But it is the ups and downs that give birth to an even more turbulent rebound storm! Since October 11, the market situation has suddenly changed, with a sharp increase of 3.67% in a single day, announcing the return of the rising market, and the price has returned to the high point of $63,000, and then it has been riding high. , rushing to $66,500.
At the same time, Ethereum also broke free of its shackles, rushing from $2,300 to $2,650, a single-day increase of more than 6.52%, the largest single-day increase since August.
In the general market ignited by passion and hope, many of the following sector targets have experienced substantial gains.
Public chain sector: $SUI, $SEI, $APT
Stablecoin sector: $ENA
AI sector: $ARKM, $WLD
Memes
In terms of contract data, short orders suffered heavy losses. In 24 hours, the entire network's positions were liquidated to US$246 million, and short orders were liquidated to US$210 million. Bitcoin open interest data also surged above $37 billion.
The market is full of altcoin demons, has the bull market really started in the second half?
Bitcoin spot ETF experiences large single-day net inflows
While there have been some net outflows since early October, they have been roughly balanced by net inflows. Starting on October 8, there were three consecutive days of net outflows, with a total net outflow of nearly 180 million.
On October 11, the data showed a major reversal, with the single-day net inflow of the Bitcoin spot ETF reaching $253.54 million, setting a new high for single-day net inflows since October. After the large inflow of OTC funds, the price of Bitcoin also climbed sharply on that day.
The confidence of OTC funds remains relatively firm.
The Fed will continue to cut interest rates, market expectations are stable
This week the United States released two major inflation data, CPI and PPI, for September. The year-on-year and month-on-month increases in overall CPI and core CPI exceeded expectations, but the 2.4% year-on-year CPI increase was still the lowest since February 2021. PPI was unchanged from the previous month, indicating further cooling of inflation.
Analysts from economists at Goldman Sachs pointed out that although September’s CPI and PPI inflation data were mixed, the final readings were still close to expectations, indicating that U.S. inflation is moving towards the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and that the Federal Reserve is approaching its inflation rate. Expanding goals.
After two major inflation data releases this week, traders are almost certainly betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its November and December meetings.
US presidential election
Historically, crypto markets have tended to see gains around the time of the U.S. presidential election results. On November 5, the results of the US presidential election will be announced, with only 20 days left.
In addition, Bloomberg reported that even U.S. presidential candidate Kamala Harris, who has never had much close contact with the crypto market, is also working hard for votes.
Harris proposed a new program on Monday to provide loans to black entrepreneurs and others who face barriers to financing. The plan would provide 1 million loans that would be forgiven up to $20,000, according to Harris' campaign outline to court black male voters. Harris also pledged to support a cryptocurrency regulatory framework that would provide more investment certainty to the 20% of Black Americans who own or have owned digital assets.
The Trump family's DeFi lending project, World Liberty Financial, has also been making continuous moves in recent days. In addition to introducing a number of experienced senior executives, it will also launch a public sale of $WLFI tokens.
Source: Foresight News
Data from Polymarket shows that as of now, Trump’s winning rate is significantly ahead of Harris.
The market is currently more inclined to believe that Trump's election as president will be good for the crypto market. However, given that the US presidential candidates have all released crypto-friendly remarks and views, no matter who takes office, the negative impact will be minimal.
The bull market period from 2016 to mid-2020 was governed by Republican Trump, and from 2020 to 2024 by Democratic Joe Biden. The crypto markets dominated by Bitcoin have experienced strong bull markets during their respective governing cycles.
Source: Matrixport
Judging from the historical market performance of the past two cycles, whether the Republican or Democratic presidential candidates came to power, they did not affect the upward trend of the crypto market.
After the election results are officially announced, some funds that choose to wait and see may change their hesitant style and choose to make bold bets on the crypto market.
Future market trends
Coinbase Analyst: Overall economic factors affecting cryptocurrency performance are shifting from monetary policy to U.S. election results
Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han said that despite Bitcoin's subdued price action this week, "market sentiment has remained largely unchanged, as evidenced by the stable perpetual contract funding rate and open interest volume over the past week. ” Coinbase analysts pointed out that the overall economic factors affecting the performance of cryptocurrencies are shifting from monetary policy to the results of the US election. Despite the recent rise in CPI and core PPI, market expectations for interest rate cuts remain broadly stable.
He also mentioned that China’s fiscal policy briefing this Saturday may indirectly affect the cryptocurrency market, especially during a period when many markets will be closed. Cryptocurrency markets may be used to express proxy views on the size and intensity of any fiscal policy announcements.
Bitfinex: The actual price of Bitcoin becomes a key resistance for short-term holders
Bitfinex Alpha’s latest analysis report highlights the actual price (around $63,000) for short-term holders as a key resistance level. A break above this level could spark further gains, while a failure could lead to a retest of support at $59,000 or even $55,000.
Bitfinex Alpha believes that the market is still in a passive state, and future trends will depend on whether Bitcoin can break through the actual price of short-term holders. Traders are advised to be alert to potential pullbacks while preparing for a possible strong rebound.
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
This article is reprinted with permission from: (Foresight News)
Original author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
