The conclusion is written at the end, let’s look at the macro aspect first:

1. Grayscale updated the list of assets it will purchase again. The announcement boosted confidence in the cryptocurrency market.

2. Hawkish Fed officials expressed that “interest rate cuts can be slowed down.”

Let’s look at technical analysis

Weekly:

Let’s look at the overall picture first. BTC’s weekly line retraced to the middle track of the descending channel last week and got support. It finally ended with a very long lower shadow and then started to surge this week. If the closing line this week can form a real K-line (the upper shadow is not too long or there is no upper shadow), it will be a perfect bullish signal.

The current price is still in a downward channel, and the upward pressure is still relatively large. In terms of volume and price, a huge trading volume is needed to achieve an effective breakthrough. And a huge trading volume requires the stimulation of some sudden positive events (it may be related to interest rate cuts or social situations).

Look at the daily line again:

In the daily chart, we can see that when the largest pressure level around 63,400 in the volume distribution chart was broken, it was accompanied by a relatively large volume, which is in line with our basis for a large-volume breakthrough. The subsequent retracement requires observation of whether the volume can shrink. If the volume shrinks, there is a high probability that a new round of rise will be ushered in to try to break through the downward channel.

At the same time, referring to the Bollinger Bands, MACD and KDJ indicators, it can be found that the upper track of the Bollinger Bands at the daily level and the top of the current falling channel are almost coincident (near 67000), which constitutes a double resistance. Although MACD has formed a golden cross and is bullish, KDJ can be seen to be about to enter the overbought range.

Although it is bullish in general, it may still need to retrace slightly to correct various indicators before trying to break through. This demand also meets the retracement demand of the volume-price increase structure.

Four-hour analysis:

From the 4-hour level, BTC broke through the previous high point and encountered resistance. At the same time, the volume-price structure began to show abnormalities. The key support below happened to be the key support level of 63,500 mentioned in the daily volume distribution chart. In the latest falling K-line, the volume-price structure confirmed that it was basically all selling orders, so there was a lot of room for callback. At the same time, the current price is at the upper track of the 4-hour Bollinger Band, and the MACD potential is weakening. KDJ also has a tendency to form a time difference, and is already in the oversold range. Overall, the callback demand is very strong! ! !

One-hour line analysis:

Looking at the 1-hour level, the current price has fallen below the middle track of the Bollinger Band. At the same time, MACD has formed a dead cross and has an accelerating downward trend. KDJ is accelerating downward, the short-term level is increasing, and the short-term level is bearish. At the same time, using volume and price analysis for reference, there is no demand for buying in the latest few falling energy columns, which shows that the downward trend will continue.

summary:

One-hour line is bearish

In the latest few falling K-lines at the 1-hour level, the volume and price structure is normal, and no buying is found. At the same time, the current price has broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the key support 63500 MACD has formed a dead cross. There is an accelerating downward trend, and KDJ has also entered a strong short range.

Four-hour line bearish

The volume-price structure at the 4-hour level is abnormal. At the same time, the latest falling K-line closed with a real K-line. The lack of a lower shadow means there is no buying. The current price is also at the top of the Bollinger Band. Although MACD is at a high level, the volume is weakening, and KDJ is forming a dead cross in the overbought range.

Daily chart shows a drop first and then an increase

The daily level has broken through the key resistance level. Through the volume-price structure, there is a need to shrink and step back. At the same time, the current price is in the Bollinger Band. Although MACD forms a golden cross, KDJ does enter the overbought space. The market needs to pull back to correct the index to accumulate power to rise and break through the downward channel.

The weekly line is still in the downward channel. Last week, it stepped back to the middle track of the downward channel and received buying support. If it wants to break through upward, it needs to increase the volume. The current situation is not clear and needs to be observed.

Trading strategy:

Short-term: BTC can be shorted around 66,000, with a stop loss of 66,500 before the high, and a take profit position of around 64,000. Conservative traders can stay on the sidelines.

Long-term: Wait for a pullback to around 64,000 to start opening long positions, and add positions in batches at 63,000 and 62,000. Do not set take-profit and stop-loss for long-term orders

Pure K-line technical analysis combined with the latest information, a rational reference.

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