Author: Matt Crosby, Bitcoin Magazine; Translated by: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

Bitcoin miners have been a reliable indicator of overall market sentiment. By tracking their revenue and actions, we can get a sense of where the BTC price is headed next. In this article, we’ll explore the latest trends in Bitcoin mining, how miners are responding to current market conditions, and what we can learn from key metrics to gauge how Bitcoin miners are preparing for the coming weeks and months.

Miners’ income

One of the best ways to assess Bitcoin miner sentiment is to examine their revenues against historical data. This can be done using the Puell Multiple, which compares current miner revenues to the previous year’s annual average.

As of the latest data, the Puell multiple is hovering around 0.8, meaning miners are earning 80% of their average earnings over the past year. This is a significant improvement from a few weeks ago when multiples were as low as 0.53, indicating that miners were earning just over half of what they averaged over the previous year.

Figure 1: Miners’ revenues have declined compared to historical averages

The sharp decline earlier this year may have put financial pressure on many miners. However, despite these challenges, the fact that the Puell Multiple is recovering suggests that the outlook for miners may be improving.

Hash rate and network growth

Despite the decline in earnings, there are no signs that miners are leaving the network. In fact, Bitcoin’s hash rate (the total computing power used to secure the network) has been steadily increasing. A surge in hash rate indicates that more miners are entering the network or that existing miners are upgrading their equipment to compete for block rewards.

Figure 2: Hash rate continues to climb to new all-time highs

However, looking at the Hash Ribbons indicator, which tracks the 30-day (blue line) and 60-day (purple line) moving averages of Bitcoin’s hash rate, the two averages are close to crossing, which could signal a bearish outlook in the short term. Historically, when the 60-day average is above the 30-day average, it indicates miner selling, which is when miners shut down equipment under financial pressure.

Figure 3: Hash Ribbons may be on the verge of a bearish crossover

There were no immediate bearish signs until we saw a bearish crossover. One positive is that every time this happens, there is a period of accumulation, which usually precedes a rise in the price of Bitcoin. Investors often view these selling periods as good opportunities to buy BTC at lower prices.

How much money can miners earn?

While we’ve discussed how miner revenue relates to the price of Bitcoin, another important factor is the hash price, which is the amount of BTC or USD a miner can earn for every terahertz (TH/s) of computing power they contribute to the network.

Figure 4: Hash price shows increased competition for block rewards despite declining returns post-halving

Currently, miners can earn about 0.73 bitcoins per terahertz, or about $45,000. This figure has been steadily declining in the months following the recent Bitcoin halving event, which cut miners’ block rewards in half, reducing their profitability. Despite these challenges, miners are still increasing their hash rates, suggesting that they are betting on future Bitcoin price increases to make up for their lower revenues.

One of the most interesting metrics to watch is hash price volatility, which tracks changes in miner revenue over time. Historically, periods of low hash price volatility have tended to precede large swings in the price of Bitcoin. As of the latest data, hash price volatility has begun to decline again, suggesting that we may be about to enter a period of large swings in the price of Bitcoin.

Figure 5: Hash price volatility is at very low levels, outlining the likelihood of a continued volatile trend in the near future

in conclusion

Bitcoin miners’ earnings are down compared to post-halving historical averages, but they are recovering from recent significant lows. Bitcoin’s hash rate is still climbing; this means miners are pouring more computing power into the network despite declining profitability. Hash prices continue to fall, but miners remain optimistic, possibly in anticipation of future price increases. Hash price volatility is declining, which historically suggests that BTC’s price may be about to see a significant move.

Despite the current challenges, Bitcoin miners appear optimistic about BTC’s long-term potential. If the current indicator trends hold, we could be on the verge of a major price move, with most signs pointing to a positive outlook.