原文标题：Bitcoin Futures Basis and Funding Rates Remain Relatively Muted Amidst Bullish Price Action
Original author: Alex Stan
Original source: https://www.galaxy.com/
Compiled by: Mars Finance, Daisy
Bitcoin futures basis and funding rates remain relatively flat amid bullish price action
Report Contents:
Market Update: Bitcoin Futures Basis and Funding Rates Remain Relatively Flat
Trend: Upcoming token unlocks increase demand for hedging
Trend: Ethena’s USDE staking income tends to stabilize
Market Update
In September, Bitcoin rallied from just under $53,000 on September 6 to nearly $66,000 on September 27, an increase of about 24.5%. Historically, such rallies in the spot market have tended to lead to spikes in Bitcoin perpetual swap funding rates due to increased demand for leverage. As traders flock to long positions on perpetual swap exchanges, the price of perpetual swaps can diverge from the spot price, driving funding rates higher. We observed a similar phenomenon during Bitcoin’s all-time high in March, but funding rates have remained relatively flat since then, sometimes even falling into negative territory. September’s rally saw a similar situation, with funding rates hovering around 10%, which is generally considered a balance level. Funding rates are often a measure of the cost of leverage in cryptocurrencies, and when funding rates spike, the cost of cash and stablecoins also rises.
Another key indicator of cryptocurrency capital costs is Bitcoin’s (BTC) basis trade. Similar to funding rates, BTC basis can also surge during significant increases in spot Bitcoin. The trade involves a strategy that has nothing to do with market volatility, in which traders use cash to buy spot Bitcoin while simultaneously selling front-month futures contracts, thereby capturing the price difference. When basis rises, short-term cash becomes more expensive because trading desks must weigh the opportunity cost of borrowing cash against the potential gains from arbitrage. The basis remained relatively flat throughout the rally, with only a brief spike between September 24 and 25 before returning to normal levels.
Overall, September’s rally resulted in only a modest increase in the crypto industry’s overall cost of capital.
Key trends...
Upcoming token unlocks increase need for hedging as funding rates drop sharply
As October approaches, several major token unlocks are about to take place, especially for SUI, APTOS, and TIA. In response to these events, venture capital funds, early investors, angel investors, and developers are exploring strategies to hedge risks and lock in prices before liquidity floods into the market.
For example, TIA will conduct a large-scale token unlock on October 30, releasing 176.56 million tokens, accounting for 81.94% of its circulating supply. Of these, approximately 65.01 million tokens will be allocated to venture capital funds.
As the unlock date approaches, the demand for hedging continues to rise. This is reflected in the funding rate of TIA perpetual contracts, which has been in negative values, sometimes as low as –400%. This trend shows that traders are willing to pay a premium to hedge their positions, especially when alternative OTC hedging options are limited due to tight supply.
Ethena's USDE staking income tends to stabilize, and the funding rate remains stable
Ethena USDe is a synthetic dollar that is uncorrelated with market fluctuations and was launched earlier this year. It is paired with pledged USDe, a yield-generating "internet bond" based on funding and basis spreads. As the market trades sideways, the yield gradually returns to normal levels.
sUSDe generates income through ETH staking and short-term perpetual contract positions, and its income peaked in March when Bitcoin hit an all-time high, and the funding rate soared to 70%. This means that long positions need to pay a premium to shorts to maintain their positions, which in turn drives the growth of sUSDe. Since then, the market has cooled and ETH's funding rate has fallen back below 10%.
Since March, sUSDe’s yield has fallen from a peak of nearly 50% to just over 10% at the end of September.
As returns began to decline, supply also declined, falling from a peak of over $3.5 billion to just over $2.5 billion at the end of September. Interestingly, the percentage of USDe supply that was staked increased during this period.
