The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meeting showed that there is uncertainty about another 50 basis point interest rate cut, which has put Bitcoin prices into uncertainty.
The Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes further dampened hopes for a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in November. Considering that the market had already priced in a 50 bps rate cut following Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish speech following the September FOMC meeting, this provided a bearish outlook for Bitcoin prices.
Fed's September meeting minutes will raise more uncertainty
The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting will bring more uncertainty to the market, which is not conducive to Bitcoin prices. Previously, market participants confidently predicted that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates by another 50 basis points at the November FOMC meeting.
However, the minutes of the September FOMC meeting showed that market participants cannot be too confident about a rate cut, let alone a 50 basis point rate cut in November. Fed officials said at the FOMC meeting that they will continue to monitor "the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook" to assess the appropriate monetary policy stance.
The committee added that they would be prepared to adjust monetary policy as appropriate if any risks emerged that could impede the achievement of the 2% inflation target.
According to the Fed minutes, the committee's assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on "labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments."
Some of the information the Fed will be focusing on includes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data due tomorrow. The US CPI data has come into focus as last week’s US jobs data dampened hopes for a 50 basis point rate cut.
The Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes further dampened those hopes, leaving traders unsure whether to allocate more funds to the flagship cryptocurrency. Such market uncertainty is bad for Bitcoin prices as investors become concerned about investing during this period.
The upcoming US presidential election is another factor
The approaching U.S. presidential election has also exacerbated the current uncertainty in the market. In addition to the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and whether there will be a rate cut in November, investors are also wary of the potential outcome of the election.
During this period, the market usually experiences a lot of volatility, which explains why many investors may choose to protect their capital. Interestingly, Bernstein analysts predict that if Donald Trump's chances of winning the election increase, the price of Bitcoin may show an upward trend before the election.
The latest odds from Polymarket show Donald Trump’s odds rising by more than 7%, with the former US president having a 53% chance of becoming the next US president, while Kamala Harris has a 46% chance. These Berstein analysts say that if Trump ultimately wins, the price of Bitcoin could go as high as $90,000.
However, history shows that no matter who wins the election, BTC will hit a new all-time high (ATH) after the election. According to the Fed meeting minutes, the November FOMC meeting will begin on the 6th, which is one day after the US election.
Meanwhile, it’s worth mentioning that veteran trader Peter Brandt predicts that BTC will rise to $135,000 by August or September 2025. This is exactly when BTC is likely to peak in this market cycle.
