On January 13, 2009, the genesis block of the Bitcoin blockchain was mined by its pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto, marking the first time in history that a completely digital and decentralized currency went online. In the 14 years and three halvings since, Bitcoin has grown to become one of the most important financial instruments, clearly demonstrating that a non-central bank-controlled currency is capable of challenging the established monetary order.
With that in mind, what important events have taken place in the last 14 years, and how has Bitcoin price fared through the ups and downs? What can we expect from Bitcoin going forward? Read along to find out the answer to these questions and more.
14 years after its inception, Bitcoin’s message rings louder than ever
The first Bitcoin transaction was sent by Satoshi Nakamoto to American cryptographer Hal Finney, along with a message criticizing government and bank actions in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.
With the growing macroeconomic turmoil and the failure of central banks to keep up with inflation problems – in large part due to the unprecedented growth in money supply during the coronavirus pandemic – Bitcoin’s artificially capped coin supply and decentralized network can be seen as the leading alternative to traditional, inherently inflationary fiat currencies.
10 most important Bitcoin milestones
Bitcoin has reached numerous major milestones and faced several considerable obstacles over its nearly decade-and-a-half-long history. Here are 10 events we believe have had the biggest impact on Bitcoin so far:
November 28, 2012: First Bitcoin halving
February 28, 2014: Mt. Gox, the biggest Bitcoin exchange at the time, files for bankruptcy
July 9, 2016: Second Bitcoin halving
August 1, 2017: Bitcoin Cash hard fork
May 11, 2020: Third Bitcoin halving
February 8, 2021: Tesla invests in Bitcoin
February 20, 2021: Bitcoin reaches $1 trillion market cap for the first time
September 7, 2021: El Salvador makes Bitcoin legal tender
November 14, 2021 - Taproot upgrade is activated
November 11, 2022: Major crypto exchange FTX files for bankruptcy
Between its third halving on one end and FTX filing for bankruptcy on the other, Bitcoin has seen some remarkable market activity over the last couple of years.
What can we expect from Bitcoin going forward? With the fourth Bitcoin halving approaching and favorable historical price data in play, our Bitcoin price prediction algorithm forecasts BTC price to grow by over +150% and break $40,000 in the next year. We’ll explore that in more detail in the following section.
Bitcoin has never closed in the red zone 2 years in a row: Will the trend continue?
Bitcoin price decreased by over -60% over the span of the last 12 months. However, there is a strong bullish precedent in play that could spell a major trend reversal in the coming months.
For starters, Bitcoin has never closed in the negative two years in a row. Granted, there is a relatively short set of historical price data to work with. However, roughly speaking, Bitcoin has operated on 3 years of growth followed by 1 year of market retracement periods, at least so far.
Bitcoin price % Change Year-over-Year Jan 3, 2011 - Year 2 $0.295 No available data Jan 3, 2012 - Year 3 $4.88 +1,544% Jan 3, 2013 - Year 4 $13.40 +175% Jan 3, 2014 - Year 5 $818 +6,004% Jan 3, 2015 - Year 6 $284 -65% Jan 3, 2016 - Year 7 $429 +51% Jan 3, 2017 - Year 8 $1,044 +143% Jan 3, 2018 - Year 9 $15,079 +1,344% Jan 3, 2019 - Year 10 $3,844 -74% Jan 3, 2020 - Year 11 $7,317 +90% Jan 3, 2021 - Year 12 $32,878 +349%% Jan 3, 2022 - Year 13 $46,424 +41% Jan 3, 2023 - Year 14 $16,729 -64%
Bitcoin has never closed in the red zone for 2 years in a row.
The main reason for this “3 to 1” cycle lies in the fact that Bitcoin halvings are scheduled to take place every 4 years. When a Bitcoin halving is triggered, BTC miners receive only half the reward that they were receiving before the halving. The next and 4th BTC halving – slated to occur between February 2024 and June 2024 – will see the miner reward rate drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
As a rule of thumb, BTC investors are excited about upcoming halvings as they are seen as a positive influence on the Bitcoin price. Case in point, preceding halvings have always been accompanied by storing price growth, as can be seen from the Bitcoin halving chart down below.
Bitcoin halvings have been one of the most important BTC price drivers.
There is no question that Bitcoin, along with most crypto and traditional assets, performed quite poorly last year. With more interest rate hikes slated for 2023, financial markets and crypto assets could continue crashing, at least in the upcoming months.
However, there is a clear chance of recovery in the cards, highlighted by the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price and its correlation with periodical Bitcoin halvings. This has made Bitcoin one of the most popular long-term crypto investments.
