CoinVoice recently learned that according to The Block, JPMorgan analysts pointed out several key factors that may affect the cryptocurrency market in the coming months, mentioning technical, geopolitical and structural events that may drive price fluctuations. In a research report released on Monday, analysts discussed the seasonal "Uptober" trend, the interest rate cuts of the US Federal Reserve System, the approval of Bitcoin ETF options, and the impact of Ethereum's upcoming Pectra upgrade.

A key conclusion of the report is the historically strong October trend, often referred to as "Uptober," with more than 70% of October Bitcoin returns positive. "While past performance is not predictive of future performance, we believe the popularity of 'Uptober' may have influenced behavior and led to a positive October for Bitcoin this year," the analysts wrote. Despite the Fed's recent rate cut, the analysts noted that the broader cryptocurrency market has not seen the expected positive impact; while a rate cut environment is generally supportive of risk assets, the correlation between the total cryptocurrency market capitalization and the federal funds rate remains weak at 0.46; since the Fed's rate cut on September 18, we have not seen a significant increase in cryptocurrency prices in response to the rate cut, and the market may be waiting for more sustained stability before making a decisive shift.

Additionally, analysts acknowledge that it is difficult to accurately predict how cryptocurrencies will respond to interest rate cycles due to a lack of historical data. Another potential catalyst is the recent approval of options trading for spot Bitcoin ETFs. Analysts expect that this could deepen market liquidity and attract new participants. This development could start a positive feedback loop, strengthening market structure and making digital assets more accessible to institutional investors. The upcoming Ethereum upgrade, dubbed “Pectra,” is also seen as a major development.

Analysts said: "While Pectra is expected to have a transformative impact on Ethereum's functionality, we believe this upgrade is more structural than a direct price catalyst. The long-term impact of Pectra will be to increase Ethereum's operational efficiency and adoption, but it is unlikely to trigger a short-term surge in Ether prices."

The analysts concluded that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, waiting for clearer macroeconomic or structural catalysts to drive continued growth. They said: "We continue to see the crypto ecosystem becoming increasingly sensitive to macro factors, so we are waiting for the next major catalyst to drive ecosystem development and enhance retail participation for long-term growth." [Original link]