Now everyone's attention is focused on the issue of further reduction of interest rates and there are many subtleties and nuances here.

Lowering interest rates stimulates economic growth.

If we look at history, we will see that each period of interest rate cuts has been consistent, and investors expect a similar format now (market enthusiasm).

However, there is one big difference between previous rate cuts and the current one: there is no recession or credit crunch.
Hence the likelihood that rates may not be cut for a longer period, as the economy continues to grow at a rate of about 3% per year.

As for the future "forecasts" regarding rate cuts, the market estimates this probability at 93% (53% a month earlier).
Imagine a situation in which expectations do not match reality (possible collapse of prices: funds, crypto).

The absence of problems in the economy (global problems) can be seen on the charts taking into account small-cap companies.
Small Cap stocks are usually the first to react to problems. The reason for the reaction of investors in these assets is related to the uncertainty about the stability of tomorrow. Now we see how indices with the inclusion of "small caps" are growing well (which cannot be said about previous periods). People believe that the Fed is preparing everyone for a soft landing and invest their money in what will give a high return.

The market always lives on expectations, so we can recall September and the period of price growth against the backdrop of a future reduction in rates (the fact of the reduction itself did not cause such a furor).
In addition, I would like to make it clear to you that the markets are related to each other and the element of differences concerns only volatility, which can be seen on the comparison chart

Look closely and understand that everything is connected with actions on the part of investors. There is confidence in the future - there is an influx of money into the markets, the situation is the opposite - prices fall.

Therefore, our global task on an ongoing basis is to assess macro- and microeconomics.

The labor market is now quite strong and shows stable dynamics, initial unemployment benefits have begun to decrease cyclically, which gives an understanding of the work of companies in general.

Inflation, as well as its expectations, are declining, and for the inflationary spiral to start up again, a long time lag must pass. In short, there is time for the markets to run wild.

We just need to go back to the Fed's methods and their "free market".

It was not for nothing that we mentioned at the very beginning the possibility of stopping the rate cuts due to the absence of global problems for the economy, which continues to grow in fairly tough conditions.

People started moving from defensive assets (bonds) to stocks, knowing that the markets were heading in the right direction and that a situation would occur in which the rate cuts would stop or they would rise - a collapse in prices.
I'm not saying that this is the main scenario, but it is possible this fall and we need to be prepared for it, keep it on our toes.

Price movements are simply a redistribution of money and this must be treated with understanding.
For your favorite crypto to grow, people must have free cash and a desire to invest it in it, and not in alternative investment instruments. The chart shows a simple example of how, with a decrease in rates, there was an outflow of capital from bonds. People invest money in risk-free instruments in a situation when a crisis is on the nose, or when they provide a serious income.

A rate cut means a reduction in risk-free returns and investor enthusiasm for risky investments.

To sum it all up, a reduction in rates in the long term means a long-term growth of stock indices and cryptocurrencies, a stop in the reduction or an increase in rates means a collapse.

For stock indices of a particular country to grow, acceptable economic conditions and apparent stability for investors are needed.
In short, everything is related to the environment within the ecosystem.

When the macro shows improvement prospects, then the markets will rise regardless of minor drawdown cycles.
You need to start from the direction and buy out corrections until the situation changes.

The plan for the near future is shopping.

$BTC as an "index" of the cryptocurrency market (altcoins still follow the direction of Bitcoin, no matter how much you would like the opposite).

Particular attention positionally needs to be paid to prices of 60,000 and 55,000.
In case of short-term fluctuations towards a decrease, you can buy back around these values ​​(remembering everything described above).
In the short term, look at the main direction and, as an option, make purchases on supply/demand bases, false breakouts.

If you are active in this kind of analysis, I will write once a week.