Bitcoin (BTC) has hit headwinds in a typically strong October as tensions in the Middle East flared up, but bulls are nonetheless looking ahead to a turnaround later in the month.

Bitcoin’s October is a cold month

As the digital asset with the largest market capitalization, Bitcoin has experienced volatility at the beginning of the year. Although October is historically one of Bitcoin's best performing months, with an average return of 21.2% since 2013, this year has started poorly.

Yesterday, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly fell below the critical $60,000 mark, but has since rebounded back to $61,179 (at press time). During this price swing, Bitcoin saw over $32 million in liquidations, while Ethereum (ETH) saw slightly more at $18 million.

Over the past seven days, Bitcoin is down 6.9%, while major altcoins are down even more. Ethereum (ETH) is down 11.2%, Solana (SOL) is down 10.9%, and BNB is down 9.9%.

According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin prices usually rise in late October. The chart below also shows that historically, early October has not been a good time for Bitcoin prices.

It is worth mentioning that since 2013, Bitcoin has only risen once on October 1, while there have been five rises on October 2. In contrast, there were nine and eight rises on October 28 and October 20, respectively, indicating that Bitcoin performs better at the end of the month.

Although September is typically the most pessimistic month for Bitcoin, it has bucked the trend this year with a 7.29% gain, its best September performance since 2013.

Multiple factors affecting Bitcoin price

Bitcoin’s fourth halving in April 2024, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cut in September, are seen as bullish factors that generally have a positive impact on Bitcoin’s price outlook.

However, recent escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, coupled with uncertainty over the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November 2024, have overshadowed these positive news.

Despite this, some crypto analysts remain confident that Bitcoin will rebound by the end of the year. For example, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank said that Bitcoin's drop below $60,000 is an excellent buying opportunity.

Markus Thielen of 10x Research is similarly bullish on a cryptocurrency rally in the fourth quarter of 2024, which he sees as a “very high” probability, citing a decline in Bitcoin dominance and rising Ethereum gas fees.

In contrast, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warned that rate cuts could lead to a short-term market crash.

At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $61,179, up 2.2% over the past 24 hours.