This article will use the three tools Dune / Nansen / Arkham, taking uppercase and lowercase $NEIRO as an example, to show in detail our steps to review the profitable addresses and the process of analyzing "smart money".
If you also want to learn on-chain data analysis and find the next "100x Golden Dog", be sure to read this.
What are the profit addresses of NEIRO (ETH)?
*Please note that there is a certain gap between the writing time of this article and the actual publishing time. The profit-taking results obtained through Dune query now may be different from those shown in the article.
Generally, to check the profit of an ERC20 token, you can directly use Dune's existing token profit query address dashboard. There are many similar dashboards in Dune. Here we use https://dune.com/dannyatlas/erc20-holder-analysis. You only need to fill in the token address and run it to get the result.
After running, the top ten addresses with the largest profit in capitalized tokens are as follows:
The top ten addresses with the largest profit multiples are as follows:
*We sort the addresses with the largest profit and the addresses with the largest multiple in descending order to facilitate understanding of the maximum profit and the highest multiple of a token. The significance of distinguishing the two is that the maximum profit is often not necessarily the maximum multiple, because the larger the position of an investor, the more rational the profit-taking multiple should be.
From the above two results, we can see:
• There are relatively few large holders of capitalized tokens that are currently in floating profit, and most addresses are in floating loss, and the top four addresses of both categories are exactly the same;
• Except for the fourth place with a larger position, 86% of the profit multiples are relatively reasonable. The top three addresses not only won the largest profit amount, but also set super high multiples ranging from 450 to 880 times, which is a huge difference from the fourth place;
• Judging from the Trades (number of transactions) on the far left, there is only one transaction. For a MEME token, generally speaking, addresses that can reach such extremely exaggerated multiples can basically be directly judged as "insider trading."
It should be noted here that since most of the possible "insider trading addresses" have already fully taken profits, the three addresses appearing in the table do not represent the largest "insider trading addresses", but only represent the addresses that have not taken profits at the time of writing.
Next, we use Nansen/Arkham to dig deeper into these three addresses to see what else we can find.
Analysis of profitable addresses of NEIRO (ETH) capitalized tokens: Address 1
0x108d9b652d20fb2e196d3118a209bf792848781c (suspected to be a Wintermute sub-wallet)
Dune shows that the address has made a profit of 450,000 US dollars, more than 880 times the profit. This data is for reference only. Nansen shows that due to its high frequency of transactions, the exact profit data cannot be calculated.
This address spent only $95 to exchange for nearly 10 million tokens at the beginning of the capitalization token release, and transferred them to
0x9b3980716cb055bf0a2a05b3bc723d6806e1bf4d (address a)
0xe5e6ed8184ebdc2c0d1b23db4c943f006de83fb0 (address b)
Address a
According to the records, we found that this is a sub-address under the market maker Wintermute. On August 7, 1.2 million US dollars of capital tokens were directly sent to the Wtinermute market maker address. The latter received a total of 15 million capital tokens from three different addresses and then sent them to another market maker address: 0xdbf5e9c5206d0db70a90108bf936da60221dc080
The last address is its direct trading address, which performs a large number of transfer and receipt operations.
Combined with its continuous increase in holdings of Capital Token, we reasonably speculate that Wintermute may be one of the "conspiracy groups" behind Capital Token.
Address b
The holdings of address b are much smaller than those of address a. According to historical records, it is an address that was created recently. After receiving the tokens, they were transferred to Bybit and MEXC exchanges respectively.
From the other holdings of this address, we can find PEPE and BasedAI. By looking at the total holdings of Wintermute through Arkham, we can also find that PEPE and BasedAI are two important tokens. Therefore, it can be inferred that this address is also a sub-wallet of Wintermute.
Analysis of the profitable addresses of the capitalized token NEIRO (ETH): Address 2
0x1a768781d4543ae6862471ca603ee64d0827e848
This address also bought 131 USD worth of UPPERCASE tokens at the beginning of the release, and then transferred them out in two batches before and recently. We use address c and address d as substitutes.
Address c: 0xd56fd17fcc0b9d346d6b1bd011dd1d93c67b497b
Address c has never sold since receiving it and has no other holdings.
Address d: 0xbbbeab557377314cfa82c6467e51bd0c53462faf
Likewise, address d did not sell any uppercase tokens.
It owns many unknown MEME coins, but the overall position value is far less than NEIRO itself.
In addition, address d has recently received 4 uppercase tokens transferred from crackoon.eth (0x0cc4bed1190019cb4be95e81fd4c4fc7cee600a4). Following the clues, we found that crackoon.eth recently bought 10 USD worth of tokens, which were dispersed to many addresses in large quantities. It is speculated that the purpose is probably to test the subsequent large-scale transfers.
The First Funder of crackoon.eth also comes from the well-known dark pool project Railgun address, which further proves the above-mentioned conjecture. However, due to the strong privacy of the dark pool itself, we are unable to further dig out the real transaction subject behind it, and the overall mining work on address 2 can only come to a temporary end.
Analysis of the profitable addresses of the capitalized token NEIRO (ETH): Address 3
0xb265f497c5b9f63ffc739bca24db5601ce90aff3
Coincidentally, the holdings of address 3 and address d are almost identical:
Here is the address d again: 0xbbbeab557377314cfa82c6467e51bd0c53462faf
This fully proves that the same person/group of people are actually behind address 2 and address 3.
According to the record of address 3, it sent the tokens to 0x23feb0f143990a9b3aa327ba516ce432b6dfafa1 (address e) and Crypto.com exchange for shipment.
Address e: 0x23feb0f143990a9b3aa327ba516ce432b6dfafa1
Address e was directly sold on Bitget, with a direct profit of $380,000, which is quite considerable.
Analysis summary of the profitable addresses of the capitalized token NEIRO (ETH)
Therefore, through the analysis of the three largest profitable addresses, we found out that Wintermute and another force (the same person is actually behind address 2 and address 3) are members of the "conspiracy group" with capital NEIRO.
Further analysis by Nansen revealed that there is actually a connection between these three addresses: they are distributed by the same CoinTool coin distributor, the address is: 0xcec8f07014d889442d7cf3b477b8f72f8179ea09.
According to the wallet creation record, the coin splitter, as well as addresses 2 and 3, are directly linked to a final binance account address: 0x3f5ce5fbfe3e9af3971dd833d26ba9b5c936f0be.
This address can be used as our key monitoring address in the future. Most of its holdings are relatively unfamiliar tokens. Based on the holdings, we can roughly infer that these tokens may also be managed by this address, thereby further looking for trading opportunities for these tokens.
What are the profitable addresses of the lowercase token NEIRO (CTO)?
Also use Dune’s dashboard to find the profit address of the lowercase token.
Lowercase token contract address: 0x812ba41e071c7b7fa4ebcfb62df5f45f6fa853ee
Among them, the top ten largest profitable addresses are as follows:
The top ten addresses with the largest profit multiples are as follows:
Based on the time of the first purchase, it can be clearly found that many addresses bought at the same time when the token was issued. It can be concluded that the same "insider trading" problem exists as with the capitalized token.
Next, we will analyze the largest profitable address and the number one address with the largest multiple respectively.
Analysis of profitable addresses of lowercase token NEIRO (CTO): the person who earns the most
Basic situation?
Address: 0x794e31c25fb4655056be42bbe10f02d342b7d868
Position value: $3.18 million
PNL: $3.15 million
GNP%：11686%
operate?
On July 27, a large amount of lowercase tokens were bought at the beginning of the release, using a MEV Bot to buy
I received a transfer from Disperse.app address 0xd152f549545093347a162dce210e7293f1452150, which is a commonly used tool for airdrops, reward distribution and other scenarios.
In the first two months, the tokens were mainly added to the position, but since last month, the tokens have been transferred out one after another. There were two transfers that were most likely to be shipments:
Transfer address 1: 0x3597c4ecbc988c6c4ed40a1be487149a7e6e6fda
The original address sent 1.7 billion NEIRO to an address labeled Dex Trader on July 31. The latter’s records showed that tokens were received from many addresses and exchanges and transferred to the same multi-signature address as the original address.
This multi-signature address obtained lowercase tokens from 14 different addresses, and its operations were basically direct shipments:
Another transfer out is also worthy of our attention.
Transfer address 2: 0x238abc9f9a567802e5d2b07cc2d09dca83f59fe9
The original address sent tokens worth $300,000 to the wallet after it was listed on Binance on August 23, and records show that the NEIRO received by the address came from multiple wallets and eventually flowed to Binance or KuCoin. About $1.24 million of NEIRO was sold.
Analysis of profitable addresses of lowercase token NEIRO (CTO): The one with the largest profit multiple
Basic situation?
Address: 0x0714225f3e9f051ff8f4d2951dc1ca028c221dca
Position value: $1.69 million
PNL: $1.68 million
GNP%：24426%
operate?
From July 28 to August 1, positions were built in batches and in small amounts (several thousand US dollars), and then large quantities were sold, and then the earned ETH was used for reinvestment.
On August 4, 900 million NEIRO were invested into the UNI V3 LP pool, and 1 billion tokens were transferred to 0xf4979415def634142815671a3fde8ae3c84fa792.
Then, 0xf497 transferred the 1 billion tokens to the third address: 0xd8de7db6b2a89e80f2f96abc0214f64b4614f013. On September 16, the day of listing on Binance, he withdrew 300 million tokens from LP and sold all 1.3 billion NEIRO, including the 1 billion previously transferred.
For lowercase, in addition to the two representative addresses mentioned above, we also need to pay extra attention to the address that bought the most on September 15, that is, trying to find out who bought a large amount of coins the day before the listing on Binance spot, so as to infer whether it is insider trading.
Directly filter the date through Nansen and select September 15th, and you will get the following results:
There are 8 addresses that have traded more than $10,000. Let’s take the first address as an example to see how it operates.
Basic situation?
Address: 0x4bb22cbc4b177880a9f7d0677c61b4693d66a585
Position value: Cleared
PNL: $420,000
GNP%：703%
operate?
On September 15, 22 ETH were transferred from a Bybit hot wallet (non-main wallet) to buy $50,000 worth of lowercase tokens on UniSwap.
On September 16, Binance launched lowercase NEIRO (CTO), and all of them were sold in exchange for USDT.
A large number of these USDTs were transferred to several other unknown addresses. (It is suspected to be a package of some privacy operations, and the source cannot be traced for the time being.)
Combined with its operations, we speculate that this address is suspected to be an insider trader who knew about the listing in advance and thus made a lot of profit. We can pay attention to whether this address has any further operations in the future.
Summary of the analysis of uppercase and lowercase NEIRO addresses
$NEIRO is a token that has been discussed and controversial this year. The dispute over capitalization has also brought a lot of wealth effects. But behind the scenes, we found that a large number of "insider trading" addresses have profited from it, or even that most of the token profits may be earned by these addresses.
This type of project is extremely risky, so you need to set profit and loss limits before participating, and be sure to pay attention to various risks.
On the bright side, at least these two tokens have brought new hype narratives to the MEME market, which are very popular. Perhaps there will be opportunities for each of them in the future, but it will take more time to test.
