đŸ’” The Fed's balance sheet has shrunk by $33.1 billion in one week!

â–Ș Goolsbee, Fed Chairman:

- The vast majority of Fed chairmen expect a significant interest rate cut in the next 18 months.

â–Ș Goldman Sachs:

- Today's Nonfarm Payrolls report makes a 50 bp decline in November less likely.

- We forecast the Fed to cut the rate by 25 bp at its meetings in November and December.

â–Ș JPMorgan and Bank of America:

- We expect the Fed to cut the rate by 25 bps in November. (previously = 50 bps)

📌 Market expectations ( #FED ):

- November 7: a decrease of 25 bp to 4.50-4.75% (the probability is already 96.2%) ❗

- December 18: a decrease of 25 bp to 4.25-4.50%.

- January 29, 2025: a reduction of 25 bps to 4.00-4.25%.

- March 19, 2025: reduction by 25 bps to 3.75-4.00%.