Weekly Review

This week, from September 23 to September 30, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $66498 and the lowest price was close to $62538, with a fluctuation range of about 6.33%.

Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chips traded around 62000, which will have certain support or pressure.

•analyze:

1.59000-63000: about 1.76 million pieces; 2.64000-68000: about 1.02 million pieces;

•The probability of not falling below 53,000-57,000 in the short term is 70%;

•The probability that the price will not break through 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 92%.

Important news

Economic News

1. The PCE price index in August was 2.2% on an annual basis, lower than the expected value of 2.3% and lower than the previous value of 2.50%. 2. The core PCE price index in August was 2.7% on an annual basis, in line with the expected value of 2.70% and higher than the previous value of 2.60%. 3. The final expected value of the one-year inflation rate in September was 2.7%, and the previous value was 2.7%. 4. The latest inflation data showed that the monthly rate of the US core PCE price index in August was 0.1%, the lowest since May, and the market expected it to be 0.2%; 5. The monthly rate of personal spending in August was 0.2%, the lowest since April, and the market expected it to be 0.30%. 6. Powell once said, "The upside risk to inflation has indeed declined, and the downside risk to employment has increased; 7. Fed Governor Waller estimated that the core PCE annualized rate in the past four months will be less than 1.8%, which is lower than the Fed's 2% target. 8. Economist Stephanie Roth said: If the US unemployment rate rises to 4.3% (currently 4.2%), the Fed may choose a larger interest rate cut. The basic expectation is that the Fed will at least cut it to 3% (even before the end of 2025). 9. Hedge fund legend David Tepper: The Fed must cut interest rates at least two or three more times to maintain its credibility. 10. The chief financial officer of Goldman Sachs said that a large interest rate cut is a clear sign of a new direction, and a soft landing seems to be a consensus. A 50 basis point interest rate cut is seen as an important turning point in monetary policy, bringing a new wave of optimism to the economic trajectory.

Encrypted ecological news

1.Keyrock research shows that 88% of the tokens airdropped during the issuance of coins this year have seen a drop in price, most of which will plummet within 15 days. Three months later, few tokens can produce positive results, and only a few tokens can buck the trend. Projects with too high FDV (fully diluted market value) usually find it difficult to maintain momentum because the expected upside becomes limited. 2.Lookonchain said that ETH destruction increased by 163% month-on-month in the past week. Before the ETH price rose in January and October 2023, there was a surge in daily ETH destruction. 3.10x Research analyzed that if the $65,000 level is broken, it will mean a reversal of the downward trend, and a new high may be set in the fourth quarter. The medium-term reversal indicator has been fully corrected, indicating that the downward trend may have ended. 4.Lookonchain data shows that BlackRock has increased its holdings by 4,460 BTC in the past two days, and the total holdings have reached 362,192 BTC, worth about $22.9 billion.

Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term insights • High-quality selling pressure • Short-term participant costs • US market purchasing power • Staged inventory top

(Figure below: high-quality selling pressure)

Judging from the performance of high-weight participants, there has not been much selling.

This eliminates a major hidden danger for the market.

(Figure below shows short-term participant costs)

The cost of short-term participants is rising and is gradually approaching around 63,000. There may be a psychological rivet range near the price. From the perspective of behavioral finance, it may be a temporary support.

(The picture below shows the purchasing power of the US market)

Buying power in the US market has resumed, which means that participants in the US time zone have seen a significant shift in their purchases compared to previous weeks, and larger purchases have occurred in the most recent week.

(The figure below shows the top of the staged inventory)

The stage inventory top shows that the price is about 70,000; this means that at this price, long-term participants may be willing or likely to sell, but it is not the top of the long cycle and may be stage-by-stage.

So you need to pay attention to risks and market pressure in this area.

Mid-term exploration • Short-term profit percentage compound model • Whale comprehensive score model • Stablecoin supply net position • On-chain spot total selling pressure

(The figure below shows the short-term profit percentage compound model)

Green area: short-term high-ratio profit area

Red area: short-term high loss ratio area

Blue line: accumulation coefficient

Yellow line: Short-term supply

This model explores the short-term profitability ratio from the perspective of supply.

It is not at an extreme point at present. It is possible that short-term chips are generating high selling pressure, or active supply has not occurred.

The short-term supply and accumulation coefficient in the market have stagnated slightly, but are still on an upward trend.

The market may face a certain degree of suspension or adjustment.

(The following figure shows the comprehensive scoring model of the giant whale)

There are signs that the whales are slowing down their pace of entry.

(Figure below: Stablecoin supply net position)

The current supply of stablecoins is still increasing, and the market may tend to be in a stage of accumulation or building up momentum.

As purchasing power continues to rise, there may not be a decline in capital sentiment in the market.

(Figure below shows the total selling pressure of on-chain spot)

There was no excessive selling pressure on the chain during this rise.

There are no signs of large buys and sells that may be close to January-March 2024.

At present, participants may be more cautious and patient.

Short-term observation

• Derivatives risk factor

•Ratio of options intention to trade •Derivatives trading volume •Implied volatility of options •Profit and loss transfer volume •Newly added addresses and active addresses •Net position of Bingtangcheng Exchange •Net position of Yitai Exchange •High-weight selling pressure •Global purchasing power status •Net position of stablecoin exchange •Off-chain exchange data

Derivatives rating: The risk factor enters the red zone and the risk increases.

(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)

This week is basically the same as last week. After the short squeeze, the risk factor has returned to the red zone again. Judging from the risk factor alone, BTC may consolidate at the current price, which is also the cost line of short-term holders, before continuing to the next market.

(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)

Option trading volume decreased slightly, and the proportion of put options increased slightly.

(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)

Derivatives volumes returned to the bottom area after the market squeeze.

(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)

Implied volatility has not changed much.

Emotional state rating: Neutral to strong

(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)

The market sentiment this week is basically the same as last week. While the market is shorting, the positive market sentiment (blue line) has reached a short-term extreme, and panic sentiment (orange line) has not been sold due to unwinding.

(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)

Newly added and active addresses are at medium-high levels.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has moderate outflow, ETH has moderate inflow accumulation.

(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)

Medium BTC outflow.

(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)

ETH moderate inflows are accumulating.

(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)

There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.

Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has rebounded slightly.

(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)

Purchasing power in America stopped losing power and continued to recover slightly this week.

(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)

USDC exchange net positions recovered slightly.

Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 60,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.

(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)

There is a willingness to buy at a price around 60,000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000.

(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000.

(Bitfinex off-chain data below)

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000.

This week’s summary:

WTR public real trading section:

Starting from February 2024, the actual status of funds will be disclosed on a regular basis every month.

Strategy: prudent strategy.

Initial capital amount: 240,000 US dollars.

Current funding: $258,000.

Yield: 7.5%

Drawdown of a new account with USD 120,000 opened in July: 2%.

The total funding is US$431,000.

Summary of news:

1. Since last Thursday night, the Fed members have spoken in groups, and the market has been pricing in the extent of this year's interest rate cuts. The dovish signals have further paved the way for the Fed to cut interest rates. 2. The biggest impact of the interest rate cut on the market is the reserves of money funds. Shaking the reserves of money funds and flowing from the original pool to the pool of other risky assets will be real money. The spring of risky assets has arrived. 3. Usually, bulls and bears come from market confidence. When the market lacks confidence, it often cannot fall. The current market confidence comes from the continuous interest rate cuts of the Fed. 4. From the overall attitude, Wall Street and the Fed are very eager to implement continuous interest rate cuts as soon as possible. There will be a large space for interest rate cuts from the end of this year to next year, which may be a little larger than expected. 5. Fundamentally speaking, the interest rate given by the Fed is not enough to shake the money fund market. When the interest rate cuts continue to accelerate, it will shake the money fund market, and there will be a second round of large funds flowing in.

On-chain long-term insights:

1. The high-weight selling pressure has not changed much, but is still decreasing, eliminating a major hidden danger in the market; 2. The short-term holder cost shows that the price has gradually climbed to around 63,000, which may be a psychological support for the market; 3. The purchasing power of the US market has changed significantly this week, resulting in a large number of positive premium effects; 4. The top of the medium- and short-term inventory is around 70,000, and pay attention to the risks and variables of the price around this. • Market tone:

The market is recovering.

On-chain mid-term exploration: 1. The buyer group is somewhat stagnant; 2. The whales are slowing down; 3. Purchasing power is still accumulating strength; 4. The pressure on the chain is low, and there are no signs of large transactions. • Market tone:

Suspension

The current market may be slowing down, but the market is still gathering strength.

On-chain short-term observations: 1. The risk factor is near the red zone, and the risk is increasing. 2. The number of newly added active addresses is relatively high. 3. Market sentiment rating: neutral to bullish. 4. The overall net position of the exchange shows a medium outflow of BTC and a medium inflow of ETH. 5. Global purchasing power is recovering slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has recovered slightly. 6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 60,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000. 7. The probability of not falling below 53,000~57,000 in the short term is 70%; among them, the probability of not rising below 71,000~74,000 in the short term is 92%. • Market tone:

Overall, the market's positive sentiment continues to recover slightly, and purchasing power also continues to recover slightly. Even if the short-term market adjusts, it is difficult to fall below the short-term holder's cost line (63K). The overall market is neutral to bullish, and the next market may need an opportunity.

Risk Warning:

The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.

This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.