As the Bitcoin halving time gets closer, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Group said in a special report published on Tuesday that the crypto winter may be over and spring may appear in the near future.

As we all know, Bitcoin will usher in a halving cycle next year (2024), and market investors are eagerly anticipating that this time will follow the history of past cycles and start a new bull market for Bitcoin.

Morgan Stanley: Crypto winter may be over

As the halving time gets closer, many institutions are also making predictions about it. Wall Street giant Morgan Stanley published a special topic on this this week and expressed optimism: "The crypto winter may have passed, and spring may appear in the near future."

The report stated that before predicting the arrival of the crypto bull market, it is first necessary to determine where we are currently in the market cycle, and put forward several reference bases:

●How long since the last high: In previous crypto winters, Bitcoin’s bottom usually appeared 12 to 14 months after the peak.

●How much Bitcoin has fallen: Previous troughs have typically fallen about 83% from their all-time highs.

●Miner surrender: When Bitcoin was near the bottom of previous cycles, many Bitcoin miners went out of business because they were losing money.

●Bitcoin price and “hot capital” multiple: “Hot capital” measures how much money has been invested in Bitcoin since its inception. Lower Bitcoin price-to-capitalization multiples indicate troughs, while higher multiples indicate peaks.

●Exchange issues: When the price of a cryptocurrency falls, it often affects the viability of some cryptocurrency exchanges. Bankruptcies, bad news, or new regulations could signal the bottom.

● Price Action: A 50% rise in Bitcoin price from rock bottom is usually a good sign that the bottom has arrived.

If inferred based on the above indicators, it is obvious that the current encryption market is in the "[trough" stage, and this is likely to be a signal of an upcoming bull market. Morgan Stanley strategist Denny Galindo wrote: We have seen many key data that can turn bullish, including Bitcoin rising 50% from the bottom price, which is usually a good sign that the bottom has arrived. Bitcoin is up 70% so far this year and is up 77% from its lowest point last year.

The crypto market is ever-changing and you still need to be careful

However, Morgan Stanley also reminded in the report that although the crypto winter may be coming to an end, Bitcoin has only experienced three bull-bear conversions since its birth in 2008, so there are still many variables in the future.

The report reads: One thing to remember is: As with any investment, past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential risks, such as cryptocurrency cracks, software vulnerabilities, economic downturns, or coordinated government actions, could arise before the expected halving event and disrupt the entire cycle.

Looking back at the past halving market

Regarding the price trends of past halving events, it is worth mentioning that the rising effect of Bitcoin usually does not occur immediately after the halving, and it takes several months to a year and a half to ferment. According to the statistics:

●The first halving: In 2012, about 12 months after the peak (November 2013), the currency price increased by 8450%

●The second halving: In 2016, about 17 months after the peak (December 2017), the currency price rose by 290%

●The third halving: In 2019, about 18 months after the peak (November 2021), the currency price rose by 560%

Past halving prices