Madman said…
Autumn is the season of harvest, and what belongs to this autumn is the A-share market that has been dormant for 10 years. China relies on its own endorsement and multiple policies to ensure that the market recovers. As for what the market outlook for the big A-share market looks like, that is not what the madman mainly wants to say today. Because Big A is now purely a policy market and sentiment market. The few trading days before the National Day have pushed positive expectations to the extreme. Uncertainty during the National Day holiday is still very strong. You need to wait for new positive benefits or policies to be implemented before you have an opportunity. Continue to rise at this slope. In short, before the real bull market, it will take at least one or two times to clean up the market for the aunts. The current node is the time when the aunts are entering the market crazily. It is not yet possible to say that there will be a sharp correction immediately, but there is no need to be too anxious if it goes short. When the aunts are trapped, just consider whether to enter the market based on the current situation. What is more optimistic is that the country's unlimited repurchase of equity pledges can create a flywheel effect. What is more pessimistic is that common sense has seen large volumes at the bottom, but such bottoms are often panic selling by retail investors, and our wave of large volumes is indeed caused by retail investors. Queuing up to open an account, full of warehouses, is it a familiar recipe and a familiar taste? There should be a huge amount of information during the holidays, so you might as well wait until the holidays are over before deciding whether to participate.
On the other hand, the currency circle has suddenly turned from strong to weak recently. We can naturally think that it is because of the strength of A-shares. During the European and American holidays, the crazy rise of A-shares will cause a huge drain on the currency circle, especially now that bank financial management is basically It is in the T+1 redemption state, which is like a big pond suddenly sucking in a small pond. The small pond is uncomfortable, but the big pond only has a little more water. Now that A-shares are in holiday mode, it still has an impact on Chinese users. If Bitcoin cannot be brought strong by US stocks within 3 days, it means that more investors in the currency circle will be ready to cash in during the holidays and rush to A-shares. Regardless of whether this approach is right or wrong, it is caused by the greed of human nature.
There are several things to pay attention to in the United States this week. The first is whether ETFs can continue to inflow significantly, the second is the preview of Ball's interest rate meeting, and the third is non-agricultural data. These will directly affect whether U.S. dollar assets can continue to flow into the currency circle. At present, the probability of a 50 basis point (2-yard) interest rate cut in November is still more than 50%, but there is great uncertainty (1-yard or 2-yard). Ultimately, we have to observe the unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate is high and the interest rate cut is high, it will Let the market enter recession expectations; on the contrary, it is an expectation that there is not enough water released; only low unemployment rate and high interest rate cuts are the best; high unemployment rate and low interest rate cuts are the worst. The first two are relatively in line with expectations, and the latter one is good and the other is bad. These were all in November, and they are all speculation at the moment.
According to past data, in the years when Bitcoin rose in September, the probability of rising in October was 100%. It was just a matter of the magnitude of the rise. Although it was partially drained by A-shares, after all, the current dominance The winner is still the United States. We should still be confident. The start of the main rise in October is an event with a high probability in history. From 2013 to 2023, only October in 2014 and 2018 fell. At the same time, we Just in time for the global flood situation, it is the most cost-effective to wait patiently for the wealth that pours into the sky.
As for other things in the currency circle, what you can see now are those meme coins. The back and forth of cats and dogs in the zoo is really bad coins driving out good coins. Investors in the entire market are running around like headless flies, and there is no practical application. Without a new main line, Bitcoin maintains a high level, and small coins are content to tolerate it, so it is still the previous point of view, shine> first go to the stock market> then go to Bitcoin> then go to small coins> finally it may be art or NFT, etc. Niche assets.
Regarding ETH, we can only say that there are currently no signs that these public chains can surpass ETH, so as long as the general trend has not changed, we only need to remain patient, watch more and move less. The better thing is that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has rebounded slightly recently. , but the magnitude is far from enough, and the strategy is mainly to hold.
Statement: The article only represents the author's personal views and opinions, and does not represent the objective views and positions of the blockchain. All contents and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and transactions, and the author and Blockchain Client will not be held responsible for any direct or indirect losses caused by investors' transactions.
〈【Madman Talks Trend】Is Bitcoin weakening? Wait patiently for the "Main Shenglang" to start in October! 〉This article was first published in "Block Guest".
