24/09/29 The Federal Reserve suddenly announced that it would accelerate interest rate cuts. BTC trading volume was sluggish over the weekend, and the small-level top divergence price did not fall!
The Federal Reserve suddenly announced a big news! Traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in November. The current US inflation rate continues to cool down and is close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target level. Affected by this, traders are betting that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 50 basis points for the second time in November. Currently, interest rate futures contracts reflect a 54% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in November.
It is worth noting that as the Fed's expectations of a further 50 basis point rate cut heat up, the European Central Bank may also start an aggressive rate cut. Phil Odonagho, an economist at Deutsche Bank, said in a latest report that the European Central Bank may accelerate rate cuts and may cut rates by 50 basis points in December.
At the same time, I also reminded yesterday that the yen staged a "big reversal", and the exchange rate against the US dollar soared sharply, while the Nikkei 225 index futures once fell by more than 2,000 points, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism. The yen carry trade has not yet ended, and the US money market fund recorded a net outflow of funds for the first time in 9 weeks. So while there are opportunities, we need to guard against risks.
Flatbread
Bitcoin closed with a doji yesterday and it is likely to do the same today. The trend here is a little bit similar to the US stock index. The Dow Jones hit a new high last Friday and then fell back, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq daily lines showed a correction. Bitcoin breaks through the weekly column of 64200, and the Dow and S&P 500 break through new highs but cannot fall back, then the risk is relatively small.
The weekly line is about to be finalized. If the price remains above 64200-65000, it will be an effective breakthrough. The daily line will form a doji after breaking through 65000. Although there is an obvious bottom divergence at the small level of 4 hours and 12 hours, the price is currently corrected on a small scale. Then pay attention to whether it will be transmitted to the daily top divergence. Therefore, in my opinion, the higher the price goes, the more you can reduce your positions in batches and then take them back after the callback.
In the 4-hour chart, the oscillating rebound in the rising channel has not ended yet, but it has entered the heavy pressure zone ahead at 66,600-68,500.
The trend is relatively smooth, and those who hold positions at low prices can continue to hold them. The precaution is to reduce positions if the 4-hour channel is broken.
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ether
We still need to look at the weekly level rebound and pay attention to the pressure of 2800. Although the daily line fell back to the previous pin of 2704 after hitting 2728, the 4H short-term line also diverged from the top divergence. If the rebound again still cannot break through 2800, the probability of a pullback is relatively high, and the cottage retracement will be even greater at that time.
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$BTC $ETH $BNB #HMSTR开盘 #美国8月核心PCE创4月以来新高 #美国二季度核心PCE符合预期 #美联储11月降息预期升温
